For what my two cents is worth, I'd rate this deal as a C-. I was expecting dilution for the mill. Did you guys hear the analyst on the Q CC ask about how they were going to finance the mill. MB side stepped the question as he'd be required to, but it got me expecting this. My problem with it is the same as Brazil's. Here's another scenario. MFN fixes the leach pad and put out a PR saying that. Next they issue a PR in Janauary indicating that they're meeting Q4 guidance (Wills indicated this during a call I made to him a couple of weeks ago). They need to publish production volume of gold and silver along with the grades. In February, they need to do the same thing. If they could have been patient for a couple of months assuming they're finally doing what they've said they'll do, this stock could have been at 15 by then. Then do the stock offering. So the question is would the banks do it at that time. I believe they would because there's still a lot of upside from there with a mill processing the higher grade ore.
As it stands now, all isn't lost. The money will be put to good use on the mill which will improve recovery down the road. Unfortunately it will take a long time to build it and with their record, there will probably be a lot of screw ups. I had hoped to be out long before then. Now I'll have to wait and see. They're going to publish the 43-101 mill plan, restate their reserves and resource which I expect to go up based on MB's comments.
We've all been patient and now MB wasn't. It was a bad decision to do the deal now instead of waiting at least a couple more months.
I thought they had said $250MM for the mill a few years ago. So, they have not borrowed all required. They will have to have cash flow. Mills do not go up overnight, they can take years. Glad you made some cash. Everyone has to follow their own goals and plans, some of which should be to reaps some profits from time to time. If you have warrants, you have probably been around MFN/MFL enough years to know that this has been in the plans for many years. Some of us wished they had begun sooner. The company replied that the first few years would be too low a grade to justify that much expense up front.
Are they paying 100% of the mill cost up front? Heck no. Don't they have a $50M line of credit and some gold/cash flow percolating out soon? They have underperformed the GDXJ by 50% in the last year – that means anything they buy with these funds is 50% overpriced vs. fixing the current problem, ramping production (and the share price with it), and then issuing shares…IF needed. The worst thing about today’s announcement is that it indicates a buyout is not in the immediate future. The only good thing about today is I sold a boatload of warrants as the stock rose cause the writing was on the wall given the short interest buildup and mgmt's past performance.