CIBC downgraded MFL/MFN to sell and went into action after the late fall conference call, now they are running the PAAS takeover.
Coincidence? And we are only back to levels it was trading at then. This is no all cash 'deal', rather an engineered stock-swap theft at these prices. the hedgies know the pos is going to skyrocket. all imo.
clearly the market doesn't think so, or this stock would be trading above 15.60. Right now, for whatever reason, this stock is trading along with the stock and cash deal, instead of the cash deal, which will provide for a nice arbitrage situation. Just keep buying and take the 15.60 cash.
First, imho, waiting for the $15.60 is a no brain-er. The real question here is do I take shares in PAAS. Silver is starting to show life now and after this deal PAAS will be the go to company for people wanting to get leveraged exposure to it.
The mining expertise added to MFN from PAAS has to be considered a plus long term.
So what I need to do now is look at PAAS and see if it is has sold off with the whole PM sector over the last 6 months and determine what up side there is in holding PAAS. It could very well be that MB decided that his considerable wealth tied up in MFN shares would be better managed by a joint MFN PAAS company. Don't know how we can find out, but it would be interesting to know if MB is taking the cash or trading shares. Of course most options will probably have to be cashed out.
Warmcamp, what are your thoughts on holding a merged MFN and PAAS company. I'm going to feel a bit naked not having the exposure to PM's as I do now if I take the cash. Although holding mfn has been hard on the nerves.
No, this is a good deal. Think of it this way. The San Francisco 49ers were a much better team under than Jim Harbaugh than Mike Singletary. Leadership is everything.
MFN under Bailey would have flopped around with good qtr followed by bad qtr for years to come. Now under PAAS leadership they will finally start to produce at their potential.
So if you feel MFN is worth more, keep your shares of PAAS, because they will make the MFN assets produce at their potential.