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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • lithenatural lithenatural Aug 2, 2003 10:09 AM Flag


    Very dangerous to be buying NLY at this moment. I'd avoid it.
    If you're the type that buys such stock and holds for years and years, I would continue to hold it. The dividend will buffer losses.
    However, the good action will be in equities for the next couple of years.

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    • 2003?

    • I disagree with you. Equities have been doing well in part because its an election year. The year after an election is historically the worse for stock returns. Years 3-4 from the presidential election are your best years and the 4th is best. Annaly has a beta of .11 and its NAV does not move much with the market. Therefore, yes it will fluctuate but not much in dollar amounts (see 52week Hi/Lo). I think Annaly is a well managed company which has been proven to navigate difficult markets and the $1.5B buyback program will protect the downside as purchases can be made which will reduce the outstanding shares and maintain the higher dividends. It will be a difficult year for equities in this slow GDP environment and global slowdown. Companies have been cutting costs by laying people off and therefore the EPS have been met but the top line keeps getting lowered. MREITS like Annaly are a great way to preserve capital in this environment with a nice dividend. Worse case the dividends are slightly cut in the future and NAV drops some but in the longer term you will always recover your money due to the higher dividend and eventually the yield curve will again favor the mreits and they will rise just need to have patience and not panic. It just give me a bit more confidence in capital preservation but your strategy may be equities and thats okay to thats why we have a market.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Lithe..I think you are being overly dramatic here. I am tired of reading your doomsday posts about how we should all avoid soon as this stock drops 10 percent all the people like you come running out to tell us how dangerous this stock is. Come on - this is probably an excellent time to buy this has consistently dropped quickly at times over the past couple of years and every single time these were buying opportunities.

      NLY should be doing very well now with the spread between short term and long term rates. They have consistently been the best managed REIT out there over the past 6 years. This is one of the safest and most reliable stocks to own if you have a time horizon of more than a few days. The dividend looks very solid to me. And what is wrong with NLY receiving some of its income from the sale of its mortgage securities..that is part of their dumb-bell strategy..mark my word this is an excellent time to buy NLY. Come back in a month Lithe and we will see where NLY is at..

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