(1) From Tobin Smith of ChangeWave: "NLY is still a bargain here. The dividend will increase next year as the refinance wave is hitting now through November. A buy under of $17 gets you a great cash-on-cash return next year".
(2) From Mike Norman this morning on Fox TV's "Forbes On Fox": "Buy it...it will continue to do well in our low interest rate environment, and pays a good dividend".
Meracotos, what you FORGOT TO MENTION about Mike Norman on "Forbes on Fox" was one of the other panalists, Jim Michaels, who said he wouldn't buy NLY because it was leveraged 10 to 1, which is much too high in his opinion, and he felt interest rates were going up.
Beware of what you read on these message boards. Many posters only give you half of the story. And it's the other half of the story that can be disasterous to your financial health.
I don't buy stocks based on TV folks or the Message Boards. I'm just mentioning some things I saw this weekend. As for Jim Michaels, he's a very conservative investor and doesn't have the in-depth knowledge on NLY, in my honest opinion, that guys like Norman and Fleckenstein do.
Well, one of the recommendations quoted states that the stock should do well "in the current interest rate environment"... Taking quite a chance on a non-growth stock, I'd say, relying on the "current environment". That environment has begun to change already... Furthermore, relying on management's promise that the upcoming dividend cut is a temporary thing, well, that's taking quite a chance too.
With so many other stocks, even within the REIT realm, even within the mortage REIT realm, I don't understand the fixation on NLY, given the risks that are being taken.
I think it can only be that stubbornness that we all have sufferred from at one time, that "we're NOT going to give up, we're going to prove everyone wrong" or "I lost a little money, I have GOT to make it up"... You know, once I abandoned these attitudes, the rate of return on my portfolio markedly improved.