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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • lpaolinoissa2002 lpaolinoissa2002 Dec 14, 2003 4:57 PM Flag

    shorts willbe on short end

    up up and away with saddam's capture

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    • ------I can't believe you think the market won't give $14 per share. Book value is around $12. NLY has traded close to book during most up-rate cycles-----

      i think we can all agree that the most important things to look at for NLY right now is Dividend rate, market interest rates, and book value....

      i'm going to concentrate on Book value here...

      go to the yahoo chart of this stock and hit Maximum time range.... now i don't want people to look at the price fluctuation...

      i want you all to look at the volume at the bottom of the graph.....

      you will notice that volume is none existent back in 1998 all the way to 2001.... i'm going to venture a guess and say that volume was also none existent before 1998 too....

      what this tells me is the reason that the stock traded near book value back then, is because nobody knew or cared about this stock.... so no reason to pay more than book value for it.....

      but look at the volume recently.... (last three years), that tells me that people actually found this stock showing up on their radar screens.... in a BIG way....

      so they are bidding up the stock past book value.....

      i don't think you will ever see this stock get down close to book value again, because it is on too many people's radar screen.... it probably will never yield 14% ever again either....

      people will just run the price up if it ever got that low in price (high in yield)....

      now that being said, i don't think the market cap will ever get above double book value either.....

      so the proper way to look at book value now is somewhere between 1 and 2 times....

      probably 1.5 or so, and it will fluctuate close to this...

      right now it is 1.54 or so....

      having a book value of 1.3 or so would probably be fair value now..... with this stock on so many radar screens....

      so i still say the fair value is a little over $16 even based on book value and the premium that is necessary to pay , or the price you have to pay since this stock is on everyone's radar.... where it was not on everyone's radar when the stock was $8 judging from the volume back then....

      jon.

    • I don't see interest rates rising much either for the next 2 or 3 years. If at any point treasury yields get close or pass the yields of stock like this, I would move all my money into treasuries or maybe even out of dollar assets together. Just depends on the situation.

    • I just can't see interest rates rising as you, and most experts, expect. No doubt about it, if I can get a comparable yield on Treasuries, NLY is history. But I just don't think that is going to happen. It should be happening now, but it isn't for reasons that are too complex for me to fully understand. I was lucky to decide to get Treasuries in August, as the price has been rising steadily ever since.

      I'm a fan of bondsonline.com, on a daily lookout for buying signals. Their market commentator today or yesterday predicted that the Fed's overnight rate would remain the same through 2004. Not that NLY gets that rate, but it is very influential, psychologically if nothing els.

    • Once again the market has proved that no one can outsmart it. When everyone thinks the market will act one way at the same time, watch out. It sure looked to be the real thing as the futures blasted up, the dumb Nikkei investors piling in, and CNBC cheerleaders got out their super pompoms that everyone was so sure we will get back Nasdaq 2000 and Dow up 300+ points... Instead we get a long outside bearish engulfing black candle at the end of the chart for the Nasdaq.

    • I wish it would go up up and away...because any shorts in the 18s will make good money over the next quarter. I will put my money where my mouth is and announce when I go short so you guys can give me all the crap you want....while I continue to make very large percentage gains by shorting NLY.

 
NLY
11.87-0.02(-0.17%)11:11 AMEDT

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