You can wait and hope that this puppy goes down further, but it wont go down much further and with a return like 11.7% I pulled the trigger for $10k. If it goes down another 20 or 30 cents before it rises up I wont cry, because history shows it will go up again unless the whole mortgage market falls apart which is a very unlikely scenario by most accounts. And getting almost 12% return is great if you are in this for the divvy �(being in for capital appreciation makes no sense in any case, unless you are a meth crazed day trader).
The best source of information about Annaly is their own web site- the best one I know. Everything is there: stategy, management description and photograph, dividend history, and future earnings estimates. Take the time to read the commentaries which are informative about Annaly and MREITs generally. And of course you will have taken the trouble to read the latest Quarterly Report, which fully discusses the risks involved at NLY.
That return is assuming a $2.00 divident for the next 4 quarters at a price of $17. More realistic IMO is a divy of about 1.80 in the next year, and that may be optimistic. That would be 10.5%, also not bad. My main concern is in 2 quarters, the march divy, after interest rates rise at least 2 more times and mortgage rates stay low. That seems a setup for a really bad divy quarter. Any thoughts on this scenario?
The fact that 75% of NLY is in ARMS means that a substantial proportion of their holdings should be able to hold the spread providing the existing divy. They are also largely into AAA. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I suspect the divvy might hold up or only take a very small hit. They have really great management and they are very nimble as history has demonstrated.