Just call me John Kerry.I'm flip flopping.Actually I didn't like the action on NLY.I did go long but not for long.I sold earlier this morning on the runup today.
Didn't make much but would like to buy when it gets into the 16 range.
At that price I will hold till close to the next divy date.
The long term disclosure really doesn't mean anything to me when someone post their sentiment.
Imho' mid 16's is where I think this stock should be valued at the current time.
"How could this possibly be a strong buy with the yield curve flattening, mortgage rates staying the same and at least a year or more before adjustable mortgages start to kick in? What do you think the divy will look like at the end of march quarter if mortgage rates stay the same? "
We need posts like this, no matter how one feels about the stock. too many pie-in-the-sky investors, especially on this board, who think NLY is a sure thing, and i'm afraid they sway some less-than-knowledgable investors. I tend to agree, with this post, though i think the downside is limited.
My losses were due to corporate fraud.(WCOM)
I still survived and am currently thriving.I'm not so sure if you would've survived if the same thing happened to you.
Actually you have no idea about my track record.
What do you think would happen if all of a sudden NLY said they had some accounting fraud and they were actually broke?You would lose everything.
Have a nice day sir.
Did you go short on NLY? The concept of profit taking in another post is really off base. The profit taking should have been right before the announced divy date when it was over 18.
NLY has done its traditonal drop after the annoucment and at this point it doesn't look like it is going to drop below 17. Why should it as long as one feels they can keep give a dividend somewhere in the range of 45 to 50 cents?
Anyone who buys NLY for capital appreciation and profit taking really does not understnd the nature of this investment. This is a buy and hold investment unless you really think the spread is going to be so thin for a long time that the divy is going to drop dramatically for a long time.
Taht is always amaybe--but I don't see that happening.
You can make more than the 12% dividend when it comes to this stock.Example I sold when NLY was over 18.I then shorted the day after ex divy date.Back in as a long at 17.26.
Divy was .50
I lost the divy but was able to gain almost another .30 cents even after sale.I also gained another .20 cents on the short side.
Sooner or later my cost on this stock will be 0
How could this possibly be a strong buy with the yield curve flattening, mortgage rates staying the same and at least a year or more before adjustable mortgages start to kick in? What do you think the divy will look like at the end of march quarter if mortgage rates stay the same?
thank you for posting your opinion, as it made me take a second look at the story. it seems that the fundamental growth story has deteriorated for the short-term, judging by the high frequency data. the central issue regarding the yield curve, as i see it, is whether one believes we will continue to reflect conditions predictive of a new recession (flattening yield curve). an important variable would seem to be the usd exchange rate, which some predict should react negatively in the near-term; and this would cause an increase in longer term interest rates as a consequence.
regarding pre-payments, i can't seem to find trustworthy sources to gauge the potential effects. the only brokerage report i have available is from a highly interested party; and they are projecting a net negative short-term effect due to this. s&p's report is out of date.
since i picked up some shares on friday, without realizing how the story had deteriorated since i last checked, i am a bit more concerned now. i will probably stay along for the ride, as i entered the position expecting a minimum 3 month holding period (january covered call).
thanks again for the rare post of value, one which tends to validate another post of information content.
"I guess the lady didn't like the way the stock dropped today.Like I would have an effect.
Actually I'm bullish on this stock,but not at the current prices.This is a great stock to own,but I have some more catching up to do.I want maximim gain.
It used to amaze me. Last year, i was really bearish on NLY (and I admitted I was wrong). But people actually believed that I drove the stock down on the bad days! I never felt so powerful in my life. So, Rojaire, enjoy your power, it's not often that little guys like us have so much of it. I feel like Donald Trump here. YOU'RE FIRED.
NLY: heading to 16. Then I buy.
"What do you think would happen if all of a sudden NLY said they had some accounting fraud and they were actually broke?"
"...if all of a sudden NLY said..."
You sound like you're about 10 years old and would be a whole lot happier playing hide-and-seek with the other kids rather than talking about hard-to-fathom things with adults.