I'm with those of you who say don't try figuring out the top of the range. As long as you remain confident in the management of a company and the game plan, just wait for an entry point you like and add some to a positon which has worked well for you, unless you have some other reason for liquidating shares. I'm not smart enough to time markets and my efforts at it have consistently yielded results which do not come close to the results of the buy and hold part of the portfolio. I do think there are ways of timing the bottom range of a stock, and that doing some dollar cost averaging through a trough has worked well for me in companies like Washington Mutual, which I started acquiring in earnest in early 2000 when it was so cheap you couldn't resist it; and in Anadarko Petroleum, which I started buying in late 01 as the price of oil started falling and its shares fell in kind. After both appreciated significantly, I quit adding aggressively, and am just enjoying the results. I'm thinking of letting some Anadarko go because its dividend is puny, but WM's is robust, and has more than doubled the effective yield on my initial investment. With NLY's yield, I can't think of a reason to sell unless you have some good reason for believing a share price downturn will be significant and sustained. Otherwise, I'd devote all of that good creative energy into something else and let your investment in this company go on auto pilot for a while.
Anyway, I enjoy the intelligent posts on this board. Merry Christmas.
I'm not nervous about it falling, I just wanted to make some money on the dip after the x-date, since we know it will happen. I want to continue to own NLY.
After thinking about it today, I'll probably just hold, but last quarter I wanted to do this but didn't and could have made more money by missing the dividend and buying back after the dip than holding and collecting the dividend.