It all depends on your goals and if you thin the long term interest rates are gong to stay permanently down.
If your goals are long term waiting for a very bottom price is foolish. Assuming that the spread does not get substantially worse (and Greenspan has been quite public that he thinks that long term interest rates can not stay permanently depressed) then we are already close to the down price for NLY. If you are a long term investor, (especially one who drips) anywhere in the $15 range is good buying opportunity since the spread will not stay at its historic thin level.
If you are short term trader, market timer and feel like gambling or shorting you may make some money, but you probably wont make much, since the new price has already factored in the lowered divvy. When the margin inevitably again (6 months to two years), the divvy will go up again and so will the per share price.
If you are short term, probably not your stock, although at this price it still is a comfortable dividend. If you are long term and especially if you are operating through an IRA this is a good time to go into NLY.
If you sell now you are folliwng the most common error buyers make--selling low in panic. This is a well run company that will be OK when the compressed margin eases.
If the Fed countinues to raise S/T rates as it says it will, if long bonds rise as Bill Gross thinks they will over the next year, if lower interest rates accellerate prerefunding, then I see $14, no problem.
I'm still watching NLY looking for a good entry point. I'm going to wait one more quarter and see where NLY stands. I like the CEO, he has definitely been forthright in his outlooks and you don't find that in a lot of CEO's. I thought he was maybe just a little too positive in the call yesterday, but honestly I haven't invested FIDAC to see what all that part of the business is about, but he seemed very enthusiastic about that side of the business.
You continue to provide good advice...from all the way back in the DELL board days!