Analysts Lowered Dec 08 EPS for NLY from .61 to .54 and also lowered guidance for Mar 09 from .64 to .59. The reasoning was that they anticipate annaly's profit margin to decrease going forward.
Refis ? You must be joking !
Who can refi ? The UAW ( and related to autos )?
The 100k+ loosing jobs from financials ?
The ones who own 7+ credit cards, auto loans, etc. ?
Be serious, the country is and will be in HUGE trouble for at least 3 years, maybe 5 or 7. Jobs will be cut left and right for at least one more year. America will never be the same: borrow, borrow, borrow; buy now, pay later; the more you buy, the more you save; etc. ( ALL B.S. ).
FEDS know it VERY WELL and are doing 2 strange things: - bailout auto and lower the rates to 0%.
NLY should have no problem to get a $1 divy by end of next year with a stock price at $22 or more.
How so? A refi is just a new mortgage. And I also think that if the refi business picks up the new loan business will as well. I could be wrong. However, I am still inclined to stick with this company for the long haul. It has proven to be a very solid investment over the years.
God bless and Merry Christmas to all
It seems to me that those making estimates have no more credibility than the average well informed contributer to this message Board b/o of the numerous variables for which one can only make a reasonable guess but there is a very wide range of possibilities. Certainly short term rates will be down for the near future, but who knows about long term rates and who knows whether explicit guarantees will be made. Who knows if the guarantees are made whether NLY will increase leverage etc etc
There are too many imponderables to make a really credible earnings estimate so I take them with a grain of salt
To add to that, analysts are like sheep. No one wants to have the highest estimate or the lowest out of fear of being off by a mile. As earnings time gets closer, the range usually tightens up. When there is a large upside or downside surprise, it's usually the entire herd that misses it.
They read and study the same stuff we do.
Analyst earnings estimate have been fairly accurate, it seems to me. The consensus for 2008 has been $2.21 for at least the last two months, and that is probably very close. If the analysts are way off, up or down, I will be surprised.