I started a similar thread on the Yahoo! board of another security that is dividend-oriented, and the thread proved somewhat popular, so I am going to take the liberty of suggesting one here.
Annaly is expected to announce its quarterly dividend soon.
How much per share do you predict it will be?
Groundrules (actually "suggested groundrules," as it's a free Internet and I certainly am not God!):
1. Post an amount per share only, so that the responses are easy to scan and we will be able to easily check for "the winner."
2. If you feel you must comment, why not do it on one of the several other dividend threads on this board, so the replies on this one will be numbers only?
OK, soon as this posts, I'll start the replies with my own guess. Who else wants to try?
Agree with both the .50 and writing calls.
Writing calls makes a big difference. With Nly at 15.30 yesterday afternoon, I wrote July 17 calls for .90. .90 for 5 1/2 months is the equivalent of 1.96 annualized. There are 2 dividends until expiration and there is upside of 1.70. If taken away at 17 (and I would probably roll up and not let that happen) and assuming 2 divs of .50, I would get a total of 18 on a base of 14.40 (15.30 less the option premium). That's 25% in just 5 1/2 months.
One can argue about how long out and which strikes to write. I like to spread it out. But the premiums make a huge difference in the total return and I'd rather get them and lose out if there is a huge move. And it would have to be huge and quick which I don't expect for me not to be able to roll out profitably. For those who expect a .63 dividend, they probably should not be writing calls now. But those in the .50 camp, like you and me, would be very surprised if the stock soared much higher than 17 in the next few months.
Darn, off by 1 cent. Congratulations, amicus.
As I said in a previous post, even a dividend as low as 50 cents justifies a much higher share price.
What is worrisome here is the fact that this is the first time in 12 quarters (3 years) that NLY has LOWERED its dividends.
Is this the start of a trend???
no, what would be worrisome is if they had a dividend that was really low, they already said last quarter that they would be conservative this quarter, everyone knew that the dividend would be lower...and that it was just going to be a few cents lower..... that is why the stock is not going down after the announcement, the stock is trading on next years earnings now, and the outlook for them is excellent.
I guessed .51 cents in a post in Oct for instance, right after their conference call where they basically told everyone what was going on.
(and no, we won't tell Christopher Cox that we suspect insider information -- because it was probably just good luck. or brilliance!)
Educated guess - I wish that it could help me make money - it's hard to know what moves this stock these days and I don't know how the mkt will react to this news. I think it may have disappointed some - but I felt sure that their earnings would be a little light for this qtr for the reasons I stated in my earlier e-mail. I do think that earnings will be better for the 1st qtr if the mtg and repo environment remains stable - but we've seen how things can change these days on an hourly basis.
In short - mgmt played it safe this qtr and still managed to provide a a $.50 divvy for the qtr - can't complain too much.
Dec 17, 8:38 am est
Here is the current guesses: