our analysis may be meaningless. I think this is why people are selling off. It is why I vacillate about buying more shares and hold off.
i agree in that the reason NLY is selling off is because the Market is selling off... especially in "financials" if Financials sell, NLY is in that basket, where ETF's and hedges have to sell it off...
I'm glad personally, because it raises my yield when i buy more, and makes option premium higher... it's sort of a win win if you believe in the actual fundamentals of the stock.
yes the prepayments will be higher, but not very much higher... there is no other effect on this stock from the plan, the real effect is that the market realizes that this plan has no real effect on anything... so the recession will continue (and down goes the financial stocks) until Obama grows some balls and implements something that can actually effect the Housing/credit crisis.
this plan does nothing but a small bandaid for maybe 500,000 homes... they are dreaming if they think 4 million houses fit into the 20% to -5% equity category that want to refinance, and qualify to refinance....
and they are dreaming if they think 4 million houses will have "modifications" by a lender on a "voluntary" basis... remember even when the government helps out, the lender still loses money on a modification, so they will not "modify" any loans that have good equity, (foreclosure gets all their money back, why modify) or even marginal equity, they will not modify any loans that have horrible income, and they will not modify any loans that are not FNM/FRE, they will not modify any loans that are not conforming....
this leaves such a small pool it isn't even funny... they are trying to slap a bandaid on a subprime market that has already been bleeding for 3 years, and is just about bled out already... not many people are left to qualify right in that narrow definition that they have set forth.
I agree that sskell's post came across as a little condescending, but I interpreted it as frustration rather than a moral defect. Also, he hasn't posted many times before on this board and might not have a very polished delivery quite yet. So I'd prefer to cut him some slack, particularly since he made a bunch of good points.
Agree with you. I think the biggest problem with all this is not so much with what is actually going on in the market but all the manipulation going on by investors who are looking for short term gains. They are like wolfs with sheepskins amongst a heard of sheep.
My current worry is that no matter how well the individual shareholders and this very intelligent board discuss what is relevant to NLY, the market is frightened of NLY because of the constant changes Washington is making to the rules of the game. We can analyze until the cows come home, but if the rules change: our analysis may be meaningless. I think this is why people are selling off. It is why I vacillate about buying more shares and hold off.
nly negatives are posted and discussed all the time. recently we've vigorously debated spreads, earnings, prepays, cram downs, defaults, leverage and Agency guarantees. all w/o the usual Yahoo style of ugliness.
what is it about anonymity that brings out the ugly side of people? is that who they really are?