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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • counselor711322 counselor711322 Apr 11, 2011 12:27 PM Flag

    Hugely profitable, low risk

    Article from an investment newsletter with express written permission to re-distribute. Enjoy.

    You already know the Federal Reserve has been shoveling out as much money as the banks want and charging nothing for it… You already know the Fed has lowered interest rates for member banks to almost nothing. But how does this impact the real world of finance? Let's look at Annaly Capital Management (NLY) to find out.

    We like to use Annaly as our window into the secret world of the big banks, because we're familiar with the company (having watched it closely for the last decade) and its business model is Banking 101: Annaly borrows money at a privileged rate and lends it safely via the government-guaranteed mortgage market.

    At both ends of every deal, Annaly enjoys the warm, loving embrace of our sovereign nation. It takes advantage of the Fed's interest-rate manipulation at the short end of the curve (where it borrows) and the Treasury's backing of Fannie and Freddie at the long end of the curve (where it invests). Playing the government's game is unbelievably profitable…

    At the end of 2010 (the most recently reported quarter), Annaly paid only 1.8% to borrow money – and it could have as much as it wanted. It turned around and "lent" those same dollars out at an average rate of 3.65% via investment in Fannie- and Freddie-backed mortgage securities (which are guaranteed against any credit loss). In this way, Annaly earned a "risk-free" profit of 1.85% on each dollar it touched. Annaly's total portfolio grew to $75 billion – meaning its net interest income was almost $400 million in the fourth quarter alone.

    Now, let me ask you a few simple questions about all this… Does it seem reasonable that a banking institution with only 114 employees and no branches should earn a risk-free $400 million in one quarter? That implies annual profits of much more than $1 billion.

    What did it do to earn these profits? Nothing more than pose as a buyer. I say "pose" because Annaly borrowed nearly all the money it used in these purchases and never assumed any risk whatsoever on the things it "owned." Does this make sense? Does it make sense that we, as a society, should trade $1 billion or more for this "service"?

    I admire the men who built Annaly and run it today. They found a simple – and wildly lucrative – way to take advantage of the absurdity of our banking system. Annaly's roughly $400 million in profits make up a tiny fraction of the $400 billion-plus profit generated by the financial sector last quarter. But they represent perfectly how these dollars were "earned." In almost every case, the money wasn't earned at all – it was simply manufactured by a charade just complex enough to fool the press and the average debtor.

    But what about the parts of the economy where profits can't simply be manufactured with fiat money? How's that part of the economy growing? It's not. Whoops.

    Given these facts, I would suggest investors pay close attention to the government's ability to maintain its paper charade. The prices of gold, silver, oil, and most other major commodities would seem to indicate this process of printing money and paying bankers $400 billion a quarter to move it around isn't productive.

    Instead of producing wealth, we're only producing debt… which is getting much harder to afford, thanks to inflation… which is a terrible side effect of using monopoly money and allowing the government to play the game's "banker."

    Please feel free to pass today's essay around to your friends.

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