1. Government changing rules for mortgage coverage and refi for Fannie and Freddie. In light of the recent budget debate, I do not see them running to do that.
2. Short term repo spike. I mean short a day or two. The speculators would get there heads handed to them by the Fed.
(I would buy NLY here)
3. Market crash. This is the most dangerous. Since I do not believe in leverage, I would hold and add as I am being paid well to do so.
Anybody have anything serious to add.
re-fi's are getting tougher and tougher . with house prices low and grinding lower more and more are under water and can not get the 'appraisal value' they need. does not look like that will change much in the near term (2-3 yrs). personal experience and i live in area where prices have stabilized. i THINK most of the walk-aways are behind us. nly still the best in a bad universe. long term ATM in my book. what are 10 yrs paying now? 2%? ouch!!
Obama can't stand to see anybody making money. He thinks it's unAmerican for some to make money and not everybody. Of course, he's a big spender (of taxpayer money). He's sicking the SEC on REITS so they will make less money and their investers will get smaller dividends.
They took a dollar hit to book in one month as the 10 year rallied and the swaps went further underwater.
Why would NLY be any different? They have a huge book paying 2.79 that is probably 100 BP out of the money as of today.
The book is proabably 16 now, making a new deal by Labor day a cinch.
Tell ya what, if they dont announce one by Sept 15 I will post an apology in capital letters.