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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

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  • headhunter80904 headhunter80904 Aug 16, 2011 11:43 AM Flag

    NLY holding steady...

    <<I'm not an option guy...they good forecasters of good/bad things to come?>>

    For those who ascribe to Max Pain theory (and possibly other conspiracy theories), the MMs/Specialists will try to move the PPS where they will feel the least pain. In the case of NLY, and the Aug. 19 option expiry date, there are over 32,500 open calls at 18, which potentially represent 3,250,000 shares of NLY that could get called away, if exercised. That's a lot more than the 16k puts, a 1.6 million share difference. So they do have a vested interest in seeing this close under 18.

    Wouldn't say it's necessarily a "good forecaster", but it's possible to interpret this as a little pre-opt.exp. run-up, and then it could move down toward the end of the week. And the MMs would probably be happier if it ended up under 18, though with the whipsaw action of the last two weeks, it's hard to say how well they might be positioned for a 18+ close on Friday.

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    • <<And the MMs would probably be happier if it ended up under 18, though with the whipsaw action of the last two weeks, it's hard to say how well they might be positioned for a 18+ close on Friday. >>

      Thinking about this again, with the flash crash of July 29, and the other dips into the 16s, the MMs are probably flush with shares, and positioned well for this to stay above 18.

 
NLY
10.89+0.13(+1.21%)Jun 24 4:01 PMEDT