That 57 cents lower yesterday was a huge blow. It puts us only 10 cents HIGHER than where we closed way back there 11 days ago, Jan 24th. Oh the humanity! 11 full days down the drain.
I'll repeat my perspective for newcomers here. NLY is an INCOME vehicle, one that tries to maximize it while balancing risk. Like the overall market, its price will fluctuate sometimes with vigor but within relatively narrow parameters of BV compared to an average equity. This means you won't get rich on appreciation.
If you're here for as high a level of income consistent with what mgmt thinks it can safely achieve you're in the right place.
OTOH, if you're here because you think a 14% dividend is almost a "right", get out now because you're going to be disappointed. We will almost certainly see lower distributions in 2012.
If you think you're going to get rich on appreciation, you too should get out now because you're apt to be frustrated by the many secondaries at BV+5% or so.
If you're here trying to trade for nickels and dimes with all sorts of neat options strategies in competition with the big boys with their all powerful computers and unlimited capital, have fun and be my guest.
But, if you understand what NLY is about and are here to make significantly higher income than most other vehicles while taking measured risks you've come to the right place. Just ignore the wild, mostly computer driven noise on days like yesterday. It's just the price of admission here.
I have been holding NLY for about 10 years now.
Over time, during dips, I have added to my position. The fact is that if the stock were to go down to ZERO I have already recovered my investment in what I received in dividends along. Do I expect that the dividends will always remain at high levels? Of course not. But in today's climate I think that NLY has by far the best management and best prospect for good overall returns.
just had to bring this thread up to remind people that this stock makes you money in the long term as long as the fed rate is low. I like the guy that posted I buy at 15.5-16 all of the time and sell.... how has that strategy worked for u, and "everyone else in the know". Funny that 2 year chart i posted seems to disagree with that philosophy as does the last 5 months since that post. I wont buy above 17, but i will certainly continue to hold, and sell at 19. Watch the fed rate as I will exit if it starts to go up.
It makes sense only if you broaden your holding period.
I could tell you that I own some at $13 and have 3.50 in appreciation IN ADDITION TO the distributions. So what?
What really matters is that the company came public around 10 and has paid HUMONGOUS CASH for 15 years in varied environments and cycles and has averaged mid teens compounded returns over the whole time.
So widen your time horizons dadafuss. If ever "buy and hold" has worked it has been with NLY so far. As some have suggested, buy the dips up to whatever your weighting is and hold on to it. Chances are neither of us are not smart enough to make consistant money by trading, though many try.
Plan is to buy low, sell high;
not buy at any price and pray it will go higher.
NLY's days of highs of >17.50 is over.
Good buy is after ex-dividend range 15.50-16.00; could go lower; then buy more; wait for the bounce >16.75 to get out before the next dividend.
Repeat process to avoid capital loss.
Works all the time; others can attest to.