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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

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  • xxavatarxx xxavatarxx Jan 29, 2013 1:11 PM Flag

    Predicting book value

    NLY had by far the worst book value increase among the agency reits.
    Their management blew it.
    Everyone but NLY was seeing 8%-13% book increases.

    What did NLY manage. Like 2%. That is terrible.

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    • ----------
      Their management blew it.
      Everyone but NLY was seeing 8%-13% book increases.
      -----------------------

      this is extremely sophomoric, and show little understanding of what MReits do...

      more than 1/3 of AGNC's book value increase was from issuing stock over book value, which can not happen again... it is literally childish to try to compare an MReit that issued secondary stock, to one that did not during a quarter....

      once more, all of those secondary shares (fully more than 10% of outstanding shares that were issued as a Secondary are now underwater for AGNC), what is particularly "smart challenged" about what Avatarcl just uttered is for these people they LOST THEIR BOOK VALUE, along with ACTUAL CASH......

      and that is just the secondary issued between june and September, they've also issued more shares that have also lost their BOOK VALUE....

    • This is due to their leverage levels hedging strategy. You should note that when paper value goes down, others go down much faster as well (unless they simply get super lucky with hedges). You will also note that NLY was more "operationally profitable" than all other agency reits (as far as I am aware) including agnc who makes more than half their dividend from selling paper rather than actual operations. This is akin to GE striking it rich because the price of plastic skyrockets allowing them to sell just plastic at a profit rather than making money from selling appliances. It happens, but you shouldnt count on it. That said, I like AGNC very much but its just not something I would hold long (yet). Id avoid ARR like the plague.

 
NLY
9.73+0.14(+1.46%)Feb 12 4:03 PMEST