NLY will sell off another 10 percent when second quarter results are released. It will sell off based on what happened a few months ago. During the last couple months: 1. Rates have stabilized= book value stabilized. 2. The steeper yield curve means a wider spread. Both are good for NLY. The price of the stock is going to fall even though the value of the stock is increasing. Then you are a buyer.
I believe most of the bad news is already in the stock price. I believe the stock price will go up after earnings. This company has some of the best management in the buisness world. Have faith, they are on top of it!
I agree with you that over the next year or two this is a good purchase and hold. I also think short term this can drop to $10.50 so I am waiting to buy. I think if at the earnings release they can be clear on there book value Q2 and if from end of Q2 to the time or earning release that book value has increase then I believe you may not get a sell off at all.
However prior to short term rates rising I think you need to bail.