"Barclays is calling for the 10-year Treasury to reach 3.10% by the end of 2013 and perhaps 3.75% later in 2014."
Sounds like a reasonable call. AGNC will have to cut the dividend by around 20% this year which will bring them more in line with NLY's 14% which is still a great deal.
The problem is another 20% rise in rates next year which will knock dividends down to 12% or so. Not bad still, however the history of this stock is for it to sell-off as BV drops which could easily be by 20% more.
But then maybe Barclays is wrong?
If so AGNC is a hold right here, however if the 10Y starts to spike above 3% - the shorts will be all over it!