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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

  • PHAGE1998_99 PHAGE1998_99 Jul 24, 1999 2:42 AM Flag

    Food for thought

    Possible trouble in mortgage-backed securities.
    Go to ABX #4287. Click on URL for "G.A.T.A. Then
    click on "swap-spreads" URL given therein. See chart
    and read recommendation below.

    Not sure how
    applicable this may be to NLY
    but worth a look, if you
    are holding this
    highly leveraged portfolio of
    mortgage paper.

    If you are not holding, it may
    indicate a buying opportunity like last Fall.

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    • Today's close was $9.875. Buying opportunity or trouble in mortgage land? Your input is appreciated.
      Thanks!

      • 2 Replies to JakSiemas
      • Go to: www.wsrn.com. enter symbol. scroll down to
        "WSRN Technical Indicators," (left side of page.) This
        is a summary of short, intermediate, and long term
        data:
        you don't have to fuss with the charts
        themselves.

        Don't know if I put much stock in technicals in
        general, but these are quite bad.

      • Sounds like trouble in mortgage land to me. In
        any case, the unknown analyst at Citicorp referenced
        in my message was unequivocal enough in his
        recommendation to sell mortgage security related equities. That
        would certainly be NLY.
        Factor in the leverage
        employed here and you have trouble.

        However, I am
        just going by what the guy at Citicorp said. My
        background in this area is not good.

        As you know, I
        like this company and have been looking for a point of
        entry. I'm going to keep an eye on the situation and the
        stock.

        My understanding is that this "swap spreads"
        situation is almost as bad as last Fall and getting worse.
        (Just heard some more about it tonight.) Will we
        see
        another collapse in NLY as professionals
        bail
        out?

        So, yes, I think we may be looking at an upcoming
        buying opportunity. From my point of view, the cheaper
        the better.

        If I were holding the stock, I
        might be thinking about taking my gains.

        Sorry I
        can't be more definite. I'm going to go over my
        reference materials on the company and this whole
        swap-spreads bit.
        If I find out anything more specific,
        I'll post.

        (We may have some time here: the
        stock is breaking down more slowly than I expected.)

 
NLY
10.78-0.140(-1.28%)May 23 4:02 PMEDT