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Smithfield Foods, Inc. Message Board

  • long_sage long_sage May 23, 2003 10:39 AM Flag

    $20 is fair for now

    I expect SFD to hover around 20 for the next 18 months. At 15x projected earnings it is in line or a little ahead of valuations of competetors.

    If hog prices rise we may see it reach $24 on speculation.

    According to Value Line SFD's potential for the next 2 years is to underperform the averages. Hog prices, aquisitions and force majure are all variable that will impact for better or worse. I predict relative flat action.

    In the mean time it BBQ season! I will invest in SFD products like ribs, loins, and chops and grill them up for my friends and family.
    Yeeee Haaaaaa!

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    • Saw your comment referring to Value Line. As I have seen other posters state and they now reflect my opinion as well, "use the Value Line pages to line your bird cage bottom". They are absolutely the worst predictors of stock prices. I used them for years...and lost a ton. If they state SFD is going to be flat...I would bet a contrarian view to them. They have zero foresight. Only history. Bet they never even speak to the CFO or other Company management to discuss future direction.

      • 1 Reply to richmondinvestor
      • I am long SFD, but unloaded about 30% of my position at $19.61 to diversify into stocks that may grow better in the next 2 years.

        I feel we are heading into a better time to make money in the market. SFD has held up relatively well, but does not perform when the overall market rises. It is tied to the price of hogs.

        As always, if you can pick good stocks you will outperform the averages. Value Line is a conservative tool to consider. I would not blindly follow any one source for guidence. In order to make money you need to consider many variables and be disiplined to hang on when times are tough and bail if the story changes. You also need some luck since the market in the short term is very irrational. It seems the market wants to go up now. Economic conditions are improving and after the summer doldrums you should be fully invested. I am going to use the summer to thumb through the pages of Value Line, read the Wall Street Journal, and Barrons, research trends and good companies and load up!

        Good luck!

        By the way, do you use any research tools or analysis?

    • bbq does not amount to sqaut in the hog market.

      I talked to a man at cargill plant and he says BBq Is overated. They do not get much of a bump out of it. Not me talking ,plant manager at cargill.