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Gold Reserve Inc. Message Board

  • eusdond eusdond Oct 1, 2013 10:02 AM Flag

    Target Price

    What are the analysts giving as their target price, post settlement ?

    TIA

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Bump again

    • As we get closer to the end of this long process, this thread is now more relevant. Bump!

    • wpsignal@idirect.com wpsignal Oct 4, 2013 11:07 PM Flag

      Why are you talking 9 dollars. At it's high it was over $20 per share. The amount of gold plus the copper must be calculated not just the gold. That is why I believe they are taking their time with the price.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to wpsignal
      • I'm with you WP. I'm glad that most of these people aren't negotiating the settlement. The amount sought is 2.3 Billion. 9 independent analysts supported that valuation. The tribunal, if awarding less than half of that will have to substantiate their decision somehow. If we get 1B, my personal opinion is that it won't include the data and without the data, they aren't going to mine gold for 10+ years.
        I think it will be a settlement in the neighbourhood of 1.5 B or $18. per share.

    • Analyst target prices are irrelevant. The value of this stock depends entirely on the outcome of the ICSID tribunal or settlement.

    • If you take $800 million as the minimum settlement that GRZ would agree to, that's something in the $9-10 range per share. I don't know if that's GRZ's number, it's just a SWAG. I doubt GRZ would be interested in anything less than that. Price target in the event of an ICSID award is probably impossible to estimate because, regardless of the number, there will be considerable uncertainty regarding VZ's response and when/how GRZ will collect.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • If the analysts have not given a target price, what do the members of this board think it will be ?

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to eusdond
      • When GRZ/VZ entered the ICSID process (it will be 4 years next spring) I created a spreadsheet to try to calculate a conservative award amount. Over these 4 years I have made changes to input/output prices, basic assumptions, discounted cash flows, comps, etc.

        The spreadsheet has a natural bifurcation trend. A higher amount for a GRZ leaning award and a lower amount for a VZ leaning award. In either case, GRZ wins, but the size of the award is dependent on the details.

        I assumed the VZ/GRZ lawyers argued high level law theory, while their expert reports got down to the tiny details. They always say the devil is in the details.

        I think the most accurate net worth measure of a mining operation is based on the discounted cash flow method, but I'm not sure what yardsticks the panel will focus on.

        If it is a VZ leaning award, I came up with a range of $6.87 to $7.91 per share.

        If it is a GRZ leaning award, I came up with a range of $11.76 to $16.38 per share.

        The wide range is due to the comps method. The VZ experts would use mining operations located only in VZ. I assume GRZ experts would use Canada, Australia, Finland, etc. A middle ground might be Indonesia, South Africa and the DRC.

        It is hard to tell how the panel will weigh each small detail in relation to how it affects the award in total.

        We will just have to patiently wait until the panel finally brings this process to a close.

      • There could be a fairly wide range in valuation pending upon the terms of the settlement or any legal judgement. My estimates are a high of $28 and a low of 15 bucks and those are just wild #$%$ estimates....

 
GRZ.V
4.49-0.11(-2.39%)Jul 30 12:39 PMEDT

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