Okay, before we all jump off cliffs laughing at bag holders, etc. Realize that (like baseball), one good call on an adcomm out of five usually makes you money.
I only lost about 17% of my investment in this POS as I cleared most of my position when were down about 20%. Very instructive lessons learned. First, any time there is any uncertainty or "cute" trial designs in a drug, you should stay away. Two, the FDA's rules are always subject to change and AVEO (apparently) didn't jump through all of the hoops thinking that they "did their work". It reminds me of my students in HS. They "do their work", but sometimes their work sucks. One doctor summed it up best. It shows that the progression free time period (FDA endpoint) was better, but it suggest that they will die faster. OUCH. Third, most people that follow Biotech (SA, etc.) don't know what they are talking about. The best source of info is from doctors and medical journals. Fourth, why tie your money up for two years in a drug that will "eventually" hit it big. IF this company is still around in 2015 and they show that they got their *** together, then I may jump in. This stock is not going to get above $3 a share any time soon. Why tie up the money when ARNA is a much better bet (Can the DEA stall its launch for two years??) I listened in on that meeting through the FDA's live stream. Nobody gives a damn about what patients think. It is a sad reality, but their "voice" is just another PC element added to these proceedings.. when.. in fact... the experts in the field will make that call. They ripped AVEO a new a**hole on their trial design. I think that they were disgusted that AVEO would haul in such a design. Honestly, this stock deserves to be trading less than a dollar JUST FOR bringing such a presentation before a panel of fellow colleagues. This CC (later on in the day) should be fun to listen to. Kudos to the analyst that asks them who taught them how to do a clinical trial?
I think you got it exactly right. I'm not in AVEO - i left in early 2012 when phase III data was first released because it was mixed in terms of PFS and OS. I still made a profit but felt the stock would languish given the uncertainty - and that's what happened. Also, AF isn't always right but when people like him including knowledgeable analysts raise concerns, it becomes too much of a coin toss. that's what this was - basically, a coin toss.
Clarify - when you are dying of a disease, you will ask for anything. Tough business and hard for a doctor to say no.. this won't help you. I pray for those people. BUT, patient wants and needs never trump the data and the science.. ask Dr. House.