Within less than a month, we have ~1.5 million (QPSA and Urkut) players. Once Facebook comes online, here are my etimates for a full year:
1. QpSA: 5000 user day X 365 = ~ 2 million players
2. urku: 1 million a month X 12 = 12,000 million players
3. Mentez: 2 million
4. Facebook: 1.5 million X 12 = 18 million
Total player/year = 34 million
Say only 5% pay = 34,000,000 X 5% = 1.7 million players pay
Say each of the players spent only $50/year:
1,700,000 X $50 = $85 million revenue/year.
Now, let say my calculation has flaws and cut this by 50%. That is still a revenue of $42 million in the firt year for Wonderful City alone.
You also have to add: DSM ad revenue, website revenue, other game revenue etc. I will try to guestimate the other potential revenue on another tread.
As flawed as my etimates/guestimate either to the upside or downside, the simple calculations shows the potential of this company is huge to to say the least.
BUY N HOLD!
Wonderful City has undergone significant improvements over the last couple of weeks. Over just the last few days the load time and efficiency of the game has been drastically improved. Used to take a few minutes to load and now it's just a few seconds. My guess is that the quirks are being worked out preparing for the FB launch.
Don't forget that advertisers and advertising rates will increase exponentially regardless of how many pay to play. We want more eyeballs = greater cost per thousand impressions rate for QPSA. I have been in advertising for 30 years. Hell- give the games away to everyone if it will quadruple the number of unique visitors to the site. onlline ad revenue is the engine that will drive this stock higher. Just ask Google and Facebook.
I did not see it. But, as you can see I shaved the revenue by half which makes my assumtion of paying players 2.5%.
You can also cut the final my guestimated revenue by 75% instead of the 50% I used which is equivalent of assuming only 1.25%. That is less than the 1.50% you mentioned.
Still it gives us a revenue of over $21 million dollars. Now, this numbers should accelerate drastically as time goes on. Should be quarterly instead of yearly after the first year operation.
Again, there are a lot of if's in my assumtion to the upside or downside. The intention is to picture the potential.
I agree, the potential for big rev. increases is very real, estimating revs. will be hard. One of the large Chinese game cos. reported $105 per user in Q1, with 900k ave. daily users. This can get big fast!
Long and holding.