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  • pfursrock pfursrock Sep 5, 2008 11:24 AM Flag


    A couple of thoughts, one of which may be a repeat......

    1850-2000...US, Europe and Japan transition to modern economy. The pace of growth resulted in huge swings in commodity markets as 10% of the world's population built a middle class.
    2000-2030....HALF of the world's population making the same transition in ONE FIFTH the time....25X pace....the perturbations in the commodity markets will DWARF those of the past century. Oil going from $12 a barrel to $147 a barrel in 9 years is an early indication. When this global hiccup is over the next ramp in oil/commodities will dwarf the recent one. The oil/commodity infrastructures are wholly incapable of responding to growth on these orders of magnitude.

    China's ten-year trend of 10%+ growth MAY be slowing a bit. But, growth on that scale is COPOUNDING, so in simplified terms a 10% annual growth indicates growth in demand for 'stuff' as follows 10%-11%-12%-13.2%-14.5%-16% etc. Slowing grwoth rates in China will only temper this effect, and accelerating growth in other large population centers like India may fill the gap.

    Your take?

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