I just read the article again and if anything jumps out at me it is the need for a cash infusion. Increased burn rate outweighs the warrant conversion. Now they can avoid any dilution to shareholders by upfront payments on a licensing agreement with a new partner but it sounds like that is off in the second half of 2014.
Jason hasn't told us anything shockingly new. Despite painting a bright picture for ONVO's future if all the stars align properly (Gee! We didn't summise that?), Napandono ends his article on a down note by saying he wouldn't chase the stock at its current price ($3.97) but would wait for a pullback.
I and others on this board have echoed pretty much the same sentiment about at what price is ONVO perhaps oversold and a good buy. Personally, I think any price below $3.50 is a reasonably safe entry point.
Above that, ONVO poses a risk for the traders among us. If you are like me: i.e. looking at the long term- buying ONVO at today's price probably won't make any significant difference. Again, if all the stars align properly over the next several years, and the technology is approved, ONVO might be $100 stock one day.
In a nutshell: Short term traders looking to get in and out and in and out over and over again, can probably wait for the pullback Napandono mentions to enhance their trading flexibility. Long termers can enter almost anywhere below $6 and feel fairly confident that one day the investment will pay dividends.
I'm with you on your thoughts and ideas here. $3.50 looks about right as a "re-entry point". To try and day trade or buy on a Monday and sell on a Friday is a coin toss and a very hard way to make money with this stock.
In my view (and this is how I buy and sell this stock), I bought in and held it for several months and got out before the warrants were called as I expected a down trend. I sold at $4.58 and am waiting for another entry point.
Perhaps as a mid term holding (a few months or so), if the stock gets to say: $3.50 and runs to $5 or so, I may cash out again and wait for another opportunity.
It depends on how the stock behaves. Jokingly.......this stock could be "bipolar" with wild mood swings one way.....one day........, and another way the next.
But as a long term investment...........I perhaps feel a bit differently than most here: I think that a company who has had a long term relationship with ONVO, may decide to buy them out. Of course if it's any of the companies involved so far...it could be a bidding war and then..........it's off to the races.
HOWEVER..........if one of these companies somewhere along the way decides to no longer affiliate themselves with ONVO, it wouldn't surprise me to see a MEGA drop in the stock price. It would imply (at least to the average joe) that something is wrong.
In any case.......I believe in this company and I hope that it makes all of our "hopes and dreams" come true.
Thanks for reading..........
One of the most-followed authors on Seeking Alpha. Thank you, Jason Napandono. Good article that makes one assertion I doubt. He said ONVO has the ability to create vascular structure inside printed tissue. This is fantastic if it is true, but the company has publicly stated (previously) that they can't do that yet. If they can, then this is huge.
This month's Scientific American carries an article, "A Sweet Solution for Replacing Organs", which addresses the use of sugar in establishing tissue that will integrate with slivers of an existing vascular system. The article sums up..."These slivers of tissue cannot take the place of a whole organ, but it is easy to see how adding liver, kidney or pancreatic cells on a fully developed vascular network could one day lead to the 3-D printing of larger body parts."