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MGM Resorts International Message Board

  • daddybird292 daddybird292 Jul 27, 2011 3:20 PM Flag

    Ok lets have a real talk about earnings

    Lets hit pause on the mud flinging for a moment (yes it's fun, let's be serious for once).

    Ok, Q1 - we had a very positive earnings as MGM was bad, but wasn't as bad as expected. LVS was hammered, Wynn rose - and we rose.

    Now Q2 is days away....... what is good and what is bad this time around?
    The good.
    1. Money from IPO
    2. Money from Macau (look at Wynn and LVS race up)
    3. Money coming from Harmon getting scrapped (lawsuit)
    4. King Of Vegas (is LV getting better?)

    The bad
    1. Money from IPO is one time
    2. We lag in Macau = less impact than LVS and Wynn
    3. King of Vegas (has LV recovered? I don't know, BYD was bad today)
    4. Debt load = (is rev enough to cover it?)
    5. Huge run already from $12 to $16..... it's already extended.

    I'd think earnings are going to be neutral, which is as good as we can expect. The question being: Is our china investment enough to cover lagging Las Vegas? One smallish casino, and we don't own all of it. I'd say no..... but no one knows for sure.

    Forward outlook is going to be king, one way or another. That, and is cash flow enough to service the debt next year?

    -DB

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    • Daddybird,
      There are some flaws with your good list.
      1. Money from IPO- They didn't get any, Pansy Ho got it. Pansy then lent MGM money in low rate bonds.
      2. Money from Macau- big boost in consolidated earnings, as the whole Macau unit will be on MGM's books for the first time.
      3. Vegas- yes, Vegas is getting better, tourism has increase every single month this year, and strip Revpars are up across the area

      • 1 Reply to stocksleuthblog
      • Excellent!

        That's what I'm talking about = real talk!

        1. Correct, they didn't get any except what she lent them = that's what I ment, just wasn't clear. It's money in their hand = so I count that as positive.
        2. YEs, that's a big unknown = first time on the books = but it's not like they're taking home the whole lot. It'll be very interesting if they stand out - or are a feeder to LVS and Wynn (unknown as of yet).
        3. I'm not familiar with these stats. I figure if Vegas gets hot = MGM will do great.

        I still think having enough money and outlook to service the debt is the elephant in the room (and I have no idea what the odds are on that).

        -DB

    • byd said downtown lv revenue was up 2.5% that should translate in strip revenue to be much higher

    • even if earnings are good, this wont run up much. wynn dropped and lvs barely moved. mgm is up 30% in a month

 
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