We have a short covering rally today after indicies got oversold. We are in a choppy market at the moment and should provide alot of trading oppertunities. The SPX next resistance is 1400 then 1415 area. 1370 then 1355/40 is support. It is all about earnings and forward guidence the next few weeks. We haven't heard many negative pre announcements which is bullish. But again its all about forward guidence.
Today the initial claims came out weak with a 380k print and the market paused and took off. Rallies on bad news is bullish for now.
Just day trading until today. I have some longs I will hold with a hedge. Price action looked good into the close. Always something to worry about but the EU and jobs will be on the front burner. If it turns out well we could load up for a while. If it gets ulgy I will dump them.
Alot has happened since this thread was started. SPX at 1295. Support on SPX is 1292/86/78/70 for wave 3 bottom. The next bounce should be decent and should come with some good news. Resistance is 1315/30/40/50.
I am almost flat at the moment and don't feel good about shorting at these levels. I also don't feel good about going long yet either, so I will watch for a confirmation of any rally. I am guessing we just bounce around some new levels to trade around.
Earning are pretty much done so we will have econ and news to trade off of. The market is probably pricing in a Greece move out of the EU or Spain issues or ??? It knows something is going on down the road.
The bull/bear spread and the put to call ratio are overcooked so we should see another backtest when Mr Market decides where and when.
I hope someone gets something from this view so if you wish to add or comment anything feel free, since this is a discussion board. GL
We hit the 1340's area and now I am looking for a bounce for a about week into resistance of 1380's.
If the RUT closes below 780 for a couple days; forget about it. Party over for a while.
With a news driven market you have no idea what the future will bring so keep it tight.
Looks like a big base has set up, just trade it.
I still think we get a pullback this week but could be wrong. Mr Market will do as it pleases to fool the masses. It looks like mid 1380's to mid 1370's may be support all the way down to 1358ish. We are overbought on intraday charts at the moment. On the up side, it looks like reistance around 1415-1420.
Earnings and forward guidance are driving the market, which have been pretty good for most. Some stocks are ripping (AMZN) while others are getting crushed (DECK). Guess the wrong way before earnings and you holding the bag for a long time.
Some econ numbers are looking sketchy lately so a few more weak numbers will move it down while if they are good we may break out.
I dont like being wishy washy but you have to play what the market is telling you, not what you want. It is really day to day right now but getting close to a completion. My best guess is a smallish pullback and a break of the old highs then choppy downward action for a while.
We hit 1370 again today. I am thinking we may see a small bounce then stair step down to 1340 then 1325 at worst for support.
Resistance seems to be at 1392/1400/1415/1420 if some miracle happens (QE3?). Another dose for the junkie would get a backtest again and keep him from throwing a fit until next time bad news comes out.
We hit the 1370 on the downside today. If it holds we may bounce Friday a little (no one will want to long at the end of the day).
The whipsaw like we have seen the last 8 trading days should continue through earnings unless a black swan raises its head.
Next week should be the big "tell". I have around the 23rd as a turn date. If we dont hold the 1370 next week we should test 1355/1340. If that breaks then 1325/1320. Resistance is 1390 then 1400/1420.
It is all about forward guidance in the earnings season. Very risky playing into a report. If we go down, watch the momo's, they will give the first clue which way we are headed.
Hit the targets Spx 1400. Looks like a time to take some off and short some. Around 8am pst Friday looks like a Hi on the SPY's. Looking toppy here for a trade.
May have a pullback then run back up to old recent highs of 1420/25.