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While I agree with GDX going up in the long term, your opinion about GDX being controlled by HFT is preposterous. It simply looks to be filling the gap from MAY when it slid to $39. Go look at the chart, it gap up and never filled. By under $40.
That's my point. The average guy doesn't know or care about a gap in the chart. The machines will take it there because they can even if it doesn't make sense fundamentaly.