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PICO Holdings, Inc. (PICO) Message Board

  • analyst112 analyst112 Mar 25, 2011 12:56 PM Flag

    value trap

    PICO continues its decline in NAV. Water rights were written down by $10MM to reflect no end in sight to housing declines. This is 45% of assets so we will see further write downs. The Canola plant could be a white elephant. What do a bunch of guys in laJolla know about rape seed? Spigit is years away from profitability and besides it is only $1/shr at recent valuations. The rest of the portfolio is no growth. Any return we might get is siphoned off by Hart and his croneys as options and salary. The opportunity cost of owning this for the past few years is very high. I see nothing as a cataylst to make any money in the foreseeable future. It should be selling at a 20% discount to NAV to reflect the present value of dead money--$20.

    Tell me where I am wrong.

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    • whoops! book value dropped 10% as they write off some of their junk investments. New target $18. Soon they will be crushing rape seed and we will competing with Cargill. Not exactly Warren Buffet knock-offs.

    • Oh right, I see he bot 84 shares in December--that's EIGHTY FOUR

    • most of those shares are option shares. I may be wrong but the stock is now selling at $20--10% below BV--my target 6 months ago. It is still overpriced. $16 is new target.

    • no value just a trap.

    • Agreed. Nothing more than a personal bank account.

    • False. Here's a link to the most recent proxy. Yes, he does own restricted stock units. He got $12 million worth for free the past two years.

      Here is a link to the proxy for those who might be considering buying into what is basically a scam:

      http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/830122/000083012211000014/def14a.htm

    • analytico@ymail.com analytico Mar 25, 2011 6:10 PM Flag

      The important business segments are all tied to housing and that's a complete unknown in terms of timing. But it ain't soon.
      Spigit is beyond my comprehension, have no idea how this produces income, ever, however that is true of many sites that are regarded as "important" and whose values rise all the time.
      Canola: The fact it is unrelated to the other equities tends to recommend it. Agriculture is a very strong present and future segment. So says the sage of Omaha. I would like to see Pico do more here. Not sure one plant by itself makes sense in the long term.
      As for Hart, I am still a believer and there aren't many cronies left.
      Near term NADA. Long term pretty good. I tend to agree with most that you said but I was looking for sunshine. If the economy improves and does not bring along the housing sector, opportunity cost will truly be awful.
      Would love to hear more comments.

      • 1 Reply to analytico
      • BETA---Below are the top five companies in the Multi-Sector Holdings industry as measured by beta. Higher-beta stocks mean greater volatility and are therefore generally considered to be riskier but also may provide the potential for higher returns.

        Leucadia National (NYSE:LUK) ranks first with a beta of 1.66; Compass Diversified (NASDAQ:CODI) ranks second with a beta of 1.16; and Pico Holdings (NASDAQ:PICO) ranks third with a beta of 1.07.

        Elron Electronic Industries (NASDAQ:ELRNF) follows with a beta of 0.97 and Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE:TPL) rounds out the top five with a beta of 0.85.

        SmarTrend currently has shares of Compass Diversified in an Downtrend and issued the Downtrend alert on February 18, 2011 at $16.70. The stock has fallen 11.7% since the Downtrend alert was issued.

 
PICO
17.96-0.04(-0.22%)May 4 4:00 PMEDT