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PICO Holdings, Inc. (PICO) Message Board

  • uhuh24 uhuh24 Nov 9, 2012 4:19 PM Flag

    Earnings

    Oh brother!! Let's build another plant in a losing business. We are not farmers. Even if you have great results in canola, the market place will ignore it as margins are all over the place. Crushing margins down over 50% vs last year and the forecast for 11/13 lower than 11/12. Might as well build a steel plant also, Knuckle heads!

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    • Forget CAnola. It is 13% of PICO and that bad segment caused a much bigger loss. Going forward they can just hedge it out. Just get the damn plant to breakeven for now. Don't buils another. But PICO is real cheap here. Book valuye is just under $21. we are $19. book VAlue is significantly UNDERSTATED. PICO shopudl now be a takeover play. They are on track to sell over $38 million of lots this year. But PICO carries ALL of real estate at $121 million BV. But they sold 128 lots in 9 mos (for $28 million) and have this many left:

      "As of December 31, 2011, this segment owned or controlled a total of 939 finished lots, including 8 completed homes and 6 partially completed homes; and 4,942 potential lots in various stages of entitlement.

      BV in real estate is way under stated. PICO sold the insurance sub. WTM paid $17 million for it. but PICO then releaed $44 million of previously tied up investments. Total swing to PICO, $61 million. Water is dead for now. So is Canola. But the SLEEPER of PICO is carried on the books at $0.000! That is their 28% ownership of SPIGIT. within a couple years, SPIGIT will go public, IMO. They are involved with "Business Social Networking". they are growing very fast. Warburg Pincus has done two equity investments into SPIGIT. Earlier this year MICROFOT paid $1.2 BILLION for business social networking firm YAMMER. And SPIGIT works with YAMMER systems/software. SPIGIT will go public sometime. PICO carries their 28% stake at $0.

      PICO is significantly undervalued here PISO will soon sit on a lot of cash. the water assets are desireable and under book. But you have to wait a while. IMO, PICO is a perfect target now for a buyout offer, and then sell/breakup all the pieces. PICO understaes BV a lot here. PICO now trades $2 UNDER already that way too low BV. Shareholders hate overpaid mgmt. Top 10 owners have almost 40% of shares. A takeover off by a player, like Carl Ichan, would get support. Mgmt has treated shareholders VERY badly. But themselves richly. Buy PICO at $19! PICO shoudl be broken up, to release big value.

      • 2 Replies to snogreen
      • Very good points. The value is there. The assets are there, Crushing margins will return to normal at some point and they will sell the plant. Hart should be ashamed taking such generous pay. It should be tied to profits. The Board is negligent. There is obviously no arms length compensation committee-- I think a few well placed emails may get things moving--biggest holders, SEC, plaintiff lawyer, and Icahn, and Relational.

      • Correct but the discount to book isn't enough to capitalize the cost of the management parasites. This is going much lower and you will know when (if) it is ever time to buy because management will start buying shares first.

 
PICO
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