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P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. Message Board

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 1, 2003 1:53 PM Flag

    a short's observation

    Being short this stock, I watch it fairly closely and would offer the opinion that while institutions own large blocks, it's really individuals buying fairly small lots who have supported the price. In the face of any negative news (a warning, an earnings disappointment, problems with Pei Wei, etc.)I would expect the institutions to bail faster than the individuals. For example, according to Yahoo, Fidelity Contrafund owns 8.3% of the stock outstanding, yet this $100 million investment is chump change to a $30 billion dollar fund. And they have probably hedged their gains at this point.
    The stock is heavily shorted, which probably provides some downside protection. Undoubtedly the hottest - and at a 50ish P/E, the most expensive - concept in the restaurant business, and will undoubtedly be knocked off by others in the casual dining segment. Obviously, at this price, my belief is that there's more risk in owning it than shorting it. Been wrong so far - let's see.