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P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. Message Board

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 13, 2004 2:24 PM Flag

    Here's your negative spin, Long:

    As you know, PFCB does not include new stores in the numbers until they are declared "fully operational", some months after they are open, which makes sense to me. (Otherwise they would distort the numbers to the low side by opening new stores.) Given this fact, the AWS of stores officially opened in 2003 looks less than encouraging to me: $143,980 in Q1, trending down steadily to $110,220 in Q4.
    And you can draw a straight trend line through to the stores opened in 2002, which also show
    deteriorating AWS each successive quarter.
    (The 2002 crop, interestingly enough, have the lowest AWS in the system: $95K, versus the systemwide $112K which you cite.)
    None of this is disastrous. Those are still very large grosses. But it does point out the difficulty of replicating the truly spectacular AWS results of the units opened in '96, for example, which still far outgross any others. The real problem is in the anemic results of the Pei Wei units, which don't seem to be making any sales headway. No, PFCB is not going to crash and burn. They will continue to prosper, but will, I think, revert to a p/e reflective of a more realistic growth rate.

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