hey, all, we could do some collective research if people are interested.
call your local pf changs and ask what the wait times are. i tried this with CA at 6:45 PM and there were like 40 min wait time in emeryville, no wait times in LA.
if we post back here we can get an idea of how well things are going.
fwiw...this kalinowski research note sounds like BS to me, but we can check it empirically. if the average wait time is 56 min then the quoted wait times we get should be thru the roof at peak times in holiday season.
Recently, I read an article which asked various economists for unusual guages of economic activity. One of them responded that the lack of skilled waiters and waitresses was his personal favorite. The theory being that as the economy picks up, the more capable and experienced staff find better jobs and are replaced by the marginal. In any event, there are so many factors which could affect wait times - the proportion of customer making reservations, the manager's need to drive up bar tabs, the expertise of the waitstaff, etc. - that it seems a very thin premise to place a buy recommendation on. Full disclosure: Short and covering on the way down, but will definitely still be short at quarter's end unless it collapses under the weight of tax selling.
Tax loss selling? Unless someone was unfortunate enough to buy in the approximately 1 month it was above $60, there is not much of a loss to take. Also, institutions and mutual funds hold 120% of the float, and tax implications there are much different than for individuals.(place response on 'end of quarter' theories for mutual funds here) Tax loss selling seems less flimsly than either wait times or the waitstaff economic theory.