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Canadian Oil Sands Limited Message Board

  • richardleeds richardleeds Mar 8, 2013 3:57 PM Flag

    2012 Net Income lowest in three years

    COSWF just released 2012 financials and the net income for the year was the lowest for 2010, 2011, and 2012. I suspect that 2013 will be lower than 2012 which would indicate a drop in share price. As the share price has not had any benefit from North American stock indexes being at the highest in history, I would suspect that any correction is going to take the shares down.
    With no real appreciation in share price for years, I would think that Penn West offers the best opportunity over the next 1-2-3 years. Yield on Penn West is 10% and it looks like the shares have reached a bottom, so a good investment. I do not expect the Chinese to attempt a run at COSWF because they already own a piece of the oil sands pie. The Chinese have said they would like to invest $40 billion in North America over the next year and are ready to close on a $1 billion investment with Chesapeake Energy. My expectation is that Penn West with 5 million acres would be a prime takeover target or a joint venture on some of the Penn West land. The Chinese only have so many companies they will do business with. They do not want small companies, they want the multi-billion dollar market cap big boys. I would not be surprised to see the Chinese take a $1B or $2B bite at Penn West and while investors wait they get a 10% yield. If the Chinese do a joint venture, I see the shares going up from $10 to $20.
    Suggestion: sell COSWF and buy PWE for a better return in 2012.

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    • Who are "the Chinese" in your complicated and misguided investment theory?

      • 1 Reply to son_of_stinkie
      • Cnooc got Canadian government approval last month to buy Nexen for $15 billion. Another state owned Chinese company owns the third largest position in COSWF, and the Chinese government indicated in a recent article that they would make $40 billion in investments in energy around the world in 2013. Just Google Chinese investments in oil and gas and you will plenty of articles on the money they are putting to work. Canadian energy shares have taken a hit and this gives the Chinese to make buys of shares or enter joint ventures or buy entire companies. PWE with 5/6 million acres of oil and gas lands it a potential target as is any multi billion company that has become vulnerable to share price declines

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