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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

  • ajabraham2002 ajabraham2002 Dec 7, 2010 3:17 PM Flag

    I Retract My TIP Prediction!

    I invoke the 250 hour rule. I would not bet on TIP at 115 by June. Maybe, maybe not, but clearly the rising yields are taking their toll and the chart looks abysmal. Rightly or wrongly, the treasury market is pricing in a stronger recovery than expected. As Markm said, might be a significant headwind for TIP if it comes to pass. I'm holding to fruition anyhow (especially after suffering through this correction), so whatever. I'm betting on stocks in 2011. We ain't crashing yet, in my opinion.

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    • "I invoke the 250 hour rule."

      Excellent use of the rule! ;)

      For what it is worth, I sold TIP at $107.90 on August 26, 2010. I'm finally back in the black on my trade.

      "I expect it to be a losing trade. However...

      It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. - George Soros"

      I've missed four distributions totaling 60 cents. It's been a rough ride watching TIP go higher while I've been sitting in cash, but as of right this moment it has actually been a good trade. I don't know where we go from here. I hope it is in bargain territory. I certainly think it is possible. I'm participating in the TIPS auctions in January and February.

      In any event, my IRA continues to sit in cash.

      Keep in mind that the bulk of my nest egg sits in TIPS and I-Bonds though.

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