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Magellan Petroleum Corporation Message Board

  • wildbennyheath@ymail.com wildbennyheath Jan 8, 2011 3:01 PM Flag

    Big Question mark for 2011?

    IMO, one big question mark for 2011 is whether or not Magellan will be able to sell their "uncontracted reserves". Read this disclosure from the most recent 10-K concerning "uncontracted reserves":

    --- "MPAL’s financial performance and cash flows have historically been dependent upon its Palm Valley and Mereenie existing supply contracts to sell gas produced at these fields to MPAL’s former major customer, Gasgo, a subsidiary of PWC of the Northern Territory. Gasgo has contracted with Eni Australia for the supply of PWC’s Northern Territory gas demand requirement for twenty five years. Eni Australia, commenced sales in January 2009, is to supply the gas from its Blacktip field offshore of the Northern Territory. The Blacktip development has encountered delays but has already commenced partial production. The Mereenie Producers continued to supply PWC’s gas demand on a reasonable endeavors basis to supplement Blacktip gas sales as required until September 5, 2010. All prices for those sales now fall under the Backstop Agreement. MPAL is actively pursuing gas sales contracts for the remaining uncontracted reserves. While gas marketing efforts to date have identified several potential customers, the majority have a gas requirement commencing in the 2011-2013 timeframe. With Blacktip gas now available, there is strong competition within the market and MPAL may not be able to contract for the sale of the remaining uncontracted reserves in the short term, but may be able to do so in the longer term with increasing demand from new mining developments and industrial users in the Northern Territory and the adjacent areas of neighboring states. Unless MPAL is able to sell uncontracted gas, including reasonable endeavors gas not taken by PWC, its revenues will continue to decline in 2011. Mereenie gas sales were approximately $11.6 million (net of royalties) or 85% of total gas sales for the year ended June 30, 2010 and $12.4 million (net of royalties) or 85% of total sales for the year ended June 30, 2009." ---

    So continued revenue decline in 2011 if they are unable to sell those "uncontracted reserves"?

    Certainly appears so, and as most know, there is no shortage of gas projects in Australia right now, in fact there is a "supply glut".

    Comments?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • lol @ carson

    • lol @ carson

    • I sold here after hearing the transcript of the shareholders meeting. They sounded like $3 was a good price for them and Y.E.P.
      I would love to be long this stock again but it may never retrace so I guess this would be my buy in. Who knows? Today, to some people, $2.85 is expensive. If it hits $3.25 next week we will be kicking ourselves for not buying here.

    • Do you have a level or an event that would make sense going long, even if there's no retracement? No need to answer if you don't want to. Just curious--

    • alyssavictoria. You lying pump artist, you!

      >>"Break-up value on land leases alone is close to $3.00." <<


      What kind of BS is that? Let's see your math! LOL!

      >> "4.00 in 1 day" <<

      Pablum for the amateurs!

      The whole game with penny stocks like this is to first get the price up artificially high and then fill up the bag with amateurs using appeals to greed.

      Only questions is >> "how much investors can make on this stock in 2011"? <<

      Oh, boy! Where have I heard that used car salesman's line used before?

      Oh, I remember! On the message board of some other nearly worthless penny stock, I'm sure!

      You're poison, babe.

      You workin' for Frankie?

    • Thanks for your thoughts on this one. Probably has a bit of juice in it, but how much is really the question. It's been an interesting story so far, with both good and bad chapters. But I have to say that the story seems a bit more cohesive and positive.

      Luck to you,

      C-72

    • Zero revenues without Australia until sales are made in Montana and U.K. The company had 32 dry holes from 2005-2009. They are 2 for 2 with new management. Disregard all past actions with this company. With shady Samela finally gone and McCann stepping down there will be no more shenanigans.

      Break-up value on land leases alone is close to $3.00. Any news of revenues from these last two successful projects will send this to $4.00 in 1 day. Law of supply and demand. Insiders and long term holders own more than 70% of the shares. Where will the selling come from?? Small position day traders like these bashers are the only sellers. They have posted nothing but negative news from 10 years ago and the stock still trades higher. I sold out at $2.90 hoping to get in below $2.50 after the tax sell-off. Charts, trading patterns and oil prices all favor a higher stock price short term.

      Only big question that needs answering is: How much can investors make on this stock in 2011?? I do not own it but I would hate to be short. Good luck boys....

    • I remember in 06' or so asking myself, is MPET a play on higher nat gas prices.. No it isnt.

      MPET has contracts with local districts to sell the bulk of the nat gas, which is probably why they got these little stakes in wells, and the major players had to share..

      Because if Nat gas prices rise 200%, MPET is still selling them for $2/per unit or whatever.. Nat gas could go to $10 and it would make no difference.

      I dont know why MPET is over $2, maybe people don't know this fact, or are just playing hot potatoe, maybe also they are just liking the fact that theres $100mil in oil assets/cash and the market cap is only $140 so its 'speculative' i dont know.

      but the situation is, show me the profits or back to book value we go (ie $1.25 or $1.50)..

    • "So continued revenue decline in 2011 if they are unable to sell those "uncontracted reserves"?

      Certainly appears so, and as most know, there is no shortage of gas projects in Australia right now, in fact there is a "supply glut"."

      the problem with MPET is that it makes no money lol.

      everytime their fields run out and they contract new discoveries, the expenses/costs to obtain rights and drill either exceed or meet the profits.

      i know from 07 when i use to track MPET, their australian fields only had a lifespan until 2016.. i see that they have new fields or wells now but after 3 years, still no profits.

      whats the point of drilling and/or buying new projects or wells, if theres no profits year after year?

      MPET appears to be a dead money for life business. Due to so many other competitors in the area, with much better bargaining and liquidity, MPET gets small tiny percentages of break even wells, where it mostly contracts to local government power companies.

      So in general, i don't get why MPET is really public or still in business.. all they do is waste time working for no profits.

      Thats been the mantra since 05'.

      Everytime a well dries up they buy new assets or so, which cost the same as what they'll earn drilling it up lol

    • Let me put it a different way, Beenie. It's fine to discuss available and old information with someone who is honestly interested. We both know you aren't bringing up old and vetted public information for the sake of good debate. You actually don't give a darn about the data, the question, or any answer provided. That's quite apparent when your questions have been answered (generally not to your satisfaction) and either glossed over by you or not even acknowledged by you. Give your silliness a rest,

      • 1 Reply to carsoncr72
      • wildbennyheath@ymail.com wildbennyheath Jan 8, 2011 4:55 PM Flag

        Call objective reality and facts "silliness" if you want, carson. There always needs to be a loser willing to hold shares and stick his head in the sand.

        What is not "silliness" but rather "depravity" is pumping a penny stock saying its an opportunity when in fact the prognosis for this old puppy is uncertain at best.

        Maybe you and babs, instead of calling those who disagree with you frauds and crooks, should apologize and stop acting like high school cheerleaders.

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