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alvr (ALVR) Message Board

  • wondringaloud22 wondringaloud22 Nov 21, 2007 8:43 AM Flag

    Net loss of $40M at end of 2006

    and total sales decreased from the end of 2005.

    True or False?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ALVR&annual

    I'm looking to understand the spike in valuation folks...other than Cisco which didn't happen. I have to laugh because I saw "investors" on this board talking about it still happening AFTER the Navini acquisition was announced.

    Please, help me understand what will drive increased PROFITS, and when this will finally happen.

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    • Mort a couple of things...

      Your argument that broadband supports economic development is spot on, BUT it often falls on deaf ears...particularly when the competing investments have to do with water and food (agriculture) or safety (war, disease). Then the priorities are different.

      Justifying the market by poiting to ALVR's cash balance neglects how that balance was earned. I look back, and I see years of negative earnings (losses!). Maybe there was cash generation many moons ago...

    • I agree on that point, but let's clarify this in the context of OPEL - the WiMAX network is 802.16d (fixed) and is not intended to supplement fiber in urban environments with an untethered mobile WiMAX network. In fact I'd be surprised if even 802.16d was provided in the urban environments where fiber build-out is under way.

      Going forward I expect consumers in urban environments around the world to increasingly demand mobile broadband.

    • You keep mentioning poverty and credit, though Alvarion's growing earnings belies this. But to address your concern more specifically, let's look at WiMAX deployment as an investment made by a nation in their future tax revenues. Broadband accessibility is increasingly important for a nation's education and competitiveness. Much as investing in health care for the poor may seem like a giveaway, it's important to look beyond that for the increases in productivity and national output. Another analogy is the debate over the XO Laptop (OLPC), which pits those arguing for treatment of the symptoms (hunger, disease) against those arguing for treatment of the problem (education, productivity).

      Developing countries clearly have enough money to pay for these networks, or else ALVR would not have a healthy cash balance and growing earnings. And it's especially important for the rapidly emerging markets to stay competitive and invest heavily in infrastructure or risk collapse of their economy when it outgrows the nation's ability to support it.

    • There is no either or situation in communications: people have both wired and wireless communications, cable, DSL, fiber optic plus cell phones and, in many cases also still POTS phones. The fact is that more people have given up wired connections in favor of mobile phones than have given up cell phones to limit themselves to fiber optic. Surveys have shown that when asked the question of whether users would give up their fiber optic, cable or DSL connection or their cell phones or smart phones, the majority say they would give up their tethered connection despite the fact it (fiber optic) has massively faster/better speeds and can deliver HDTV and other rich content in a superior or exclusive fashion.

      Fiber optic is great but it is stuck in the ground (fixed) so to speak. It is not hardly the same thing or exclussive as history has made abundantly clear to anyone with half a brain.

    • Thanks for that information...the 5.8 GHz is certainly GOOD news for the vendor selected due to the propagation as you note...so from an investment perspective (what else is there?) that's great.

      And yes I agree that WiMax is the only sensible, cost effective way to serve those people. Unless there are so few and they are so poor that it can't be justified. I'm talking globally of course.

    • The developed parts of Australia are likely to get fiber, not WiMAX. It's the undeveloped rural areas that WiMAX is being selected for. They are currently looking at an unusually high frequency for this deployment, but the chosen 5.8 GHz is unlicensed and helps reduce costs. Despite the added density required for the reduced propagation characteristics at that frequency, it's still cheaper than digging up miles of desert to lay fiber. Incidentally the issue of frequency may be moot if OPEL successfully negotiates for a portion of lower-frequency spectrum owned by the military.

    • markets, and specifically the ones you mention, anyone would tell you they have little money, no credit, and often don't pay. It's a major risk.

      Now regarding Opel, isn't that Australia? Last time I checked, that's not developing, it's developed. The competition for an actual stable account will be fierce, and any operator who serves rich, bitchy people will want to go with a big name vendor. There are now several to choose from in Asia (Samsung), Europe (Nokia), and the US (Moto).

      This company would have been very smart to sell when they had a chance. It will forever be a niche player.

    • 1st qtr, == 50.0mil ??
      2nd qtr. == 57.5 mil
      3rd qtr. == 60.6mil
      4th qtr == 61-65mil projected
      2007 == 229.1 - 233.1 total revenue record year

    • You don't read much.

    • Need to keep in mind that Wi-Max is beginning and ALVR has one of the few solutions deployed all over the world. With that in mind one should consider is revenue growing qtr over qtr. For the first three qtrs of 2007.

      Q1: 52.1 million
      Q2: 57.5 million
      Q3: 60.6 million
      Q4: projected 61-65 million.

      Nice revenue growth should drive profitability. The price spike was due to Wi-Max hysteria. It would be nice to get more of that with real adoption. ALVR seems to have most of the world under its domain execept the US.

      • 2 Replies to zevach
      • Also...I asked about PROFITABILTY...not revenue.

        I noted that revenue fell from Jan 05 to Jan 06. But the gist of the story must be about EARNINGS.

        It's only gotten much more difficult for ALVR since the beginning of this year. That's obvious. Meanwhile they are giving away pilots all over the planet, so that other vendors will eventually reap this market...if it happens at all to the extent predicted.

        I don't see why the valuation should rise, but I'm willing to listen.

      • Other long time 802.16d Wimax vendors besides Alvarion are Aperto, Airspan, Redline, and Navini among others.

        Now we have Samsung, Nokia, and Motorola all with their own product lines... and considerably more resources, channels, and much stronger brands.

        Navini was just bought by...Cisco. They will not just passively market the solution, I assure you.

 
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