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Saratoga Resources Inc. Message Board

  • preferred38 preferred38 Aug 14, 2013 5:50 PM Flag

    Rocky log

    Sorry to take so long BF-catching up. There certainly is resistivity there. As seen on the TVD log slide 11 the top of the sand is ratty(thin sand beds separated by shale, with about 7' of oil column on water? and another post mentioned a 20' column, I guess including the possibility of another 5-10' of structure over nearby wells. There is no footage scale on the horizontal log, imagine this is an expanded log meaning 1 division equals 2', so we are viewing a small section here. Probably the lateral ducks into the water column then the shale layer above some, so key will be the size of the water cut. Difficult to visualize what drilling horizontally within a sand should look like. The 5800' sand is a beach-like sand, thus the gravel pack.
    Looks like the pipeline tie into the Breton Sound 32 platform is ongoing. Once completed, the well will be flow tested( 2 weeks?).

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    • The sand is around six or seven feet thick, high porosity and permeability. Lateral went nearly the entire 750 feet company said, with best part in the last 350-400 feet. They expect initial production test of 2 to 3 times a vertical well, with much better total recoveries and slower decline curve. Water has intruded very very slowly in other wells so they expect this one to produce for some time before water intrusion issues. Pipeline to transport the oil has been cleared out of paraffin and has really increased the capacity if they get a decent well. Drilling mud and rig from Rocky moving to Zeke then Charlie - and costs are running around 15% below AFE.

      All primed for liftoff here. Oil selling at $100 bbl makes this a well that might payout in less than a year. Kerr McGee wells drilled 15 years ago were very profitable

    • drillingsolutions Aug 16, 2013 8:46 AM Flag

      Thanks for the update! I would like to comment on a few things:
      - Because of the nature of a horizontal well (a well-bore slowly bouncing up and down within just a few feet of rock (vertically speaking), the log traces themselves tend to look more like a 5" log, even when generated in 1" format. This might explain why the MD log appears to change scale.
      - If they dipped down into the water bearing portion of the sand on one or more occasions, they should have ran a liner & only perforated where the well-bore was in oil. Running a gravel pack in a situation like this would be a horrible decision. SARA was going for a big IP rate to help their stock price. It was essential to keep water out of the production stream in order to maximize IP rates (water weighs more than oil & therefore a 7000 ft column of water will exert more pressure on the formation than a column of oil - reducing production rates).
      - I'm affraid that I have been terribly mistaken about the SARA's well inventory for re-completion prospects. I became aware of this after the recent PR claiming 90ish BOPD from 5 work-overs. Rocky's results suggest that their drilling prospect inventory is equally lacking. I believe that I have overestimated the company.

      I sold about 75% of my position on the first pps rise following the "work-over PR", and I sold the remaining 25% yesterday because I had a bad feeling about Rocky's results being delayed - I was expecting high numbers which is why I held on to the 25%. I cannot imagine a scenario where I would want to buy back into SARA at this point.
      , I do not think that SARA can weather this storm.

      • 2 Replies to drillingsolutions
      • Yeah I was going to sell here also. Management has promised and not delivered.

        I decided not to, at least until December and I can use a tax loss. Management owns 32% of the shares so has a vested interest here. And they are shooting fish in a barrel so I have heard from non-company technical experts. Plus you have Rocky & Zeke coming in.

        Add on $9 per share NAV based on PV10, less debt gives you around $5 clear. So does not make sense selling $5 of assets for $1.80, at least right now.

        But go figure, lots of folks have sold and moved on. This baby looks dead. So maybe I should dump here and move on also.

      • I look at it this way DS, if they could increase production levels as easily as portrayed during the last presentation( 'turn on a dime') then why are rates declining. Can't blame it on Ike forever, it is more like bad management.
        In Sara's case, the more verbiage, the sadder management appears.

    • I think I was the one who mentioned the 20" column, citing something from the conference call transcript that I did not understand. I noticed in LINE's quarterly report that they boasted of reducing their spud to sales from 88 days to 64 days, so I reminded myself to be patient. Thanks so much for your comment, although a lot of it is opaque to me. In the SARA conference call, they sound very optimistic about Rocky, but then they always do and so many of their prognostications have gone awry. Ruellia

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