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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

  • hightechmaster hightechmaster Mar 25, 1998 1:39 PM Flag

    downs and ups

    Okay, LLY down. You could see it coming a few days ago when the market surge passed them by. Now we know why (thanks, Salomon).
    Very hard to predict what happens next. Here are 2 scenarios:

    Scenario 1: The stock tests 57-59 when end-of-quarter institutional mad money dries up. A good buying opportunity, but no guarantee when we see a recovery. Better than expected earnings, OR end of the next quarter's rush to invest by institutions could provide support.

    Scenario 2: The stock bounces off 59 and recovers into the 60's after this sector rotation is over. Note that virtually all pharmas got hit today, some due to volume, some profit taking, and some from tech stock recovery. When the pharmas recover as a sector, LLY may find some support. Again, decent earnings, Evista picking up momentum, etc. could help.

    Still a good long term hold. Dicey, short-term. I personally don't like the lower earnings projections, and it would seem that institutions that invest in this sector will focus on other pharmas with really solid prospects (I'm into WLA long term, for example).

    If the earnings estimates were higher I would say LLY is suddenly very cheap and attractive. But the earnings estimates are falling and that's a negative signal. I love the company, love the stock, dislike the current technicals.

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    • nice to see you have mistaken the content of my message concerning lly. i did go buy stocks that went up today and will probably do the same tomorrow. glad to see your lly increase today and i am sure that makes you feel wonderful. i will be back in lly sometime in the near future but i will not be screaming about anything. Sorry you were confused about my belief in lly.

    • Your last screaming sentence is a "screamer" indeed: "...I AM GOING TO GO BUY STOCKS THAT CHOOSE TO INCREASE IN VALUE."

      Just think, you will never have to take a loss again.


    • please explain your logic? I have made a lot of money on this stock and probably will continue to hold it. However,the great
      tobias puzzles me.
      1. He pays $4 billion for pcs and has a write off as result
      in excess of 1997 earnings.
      2. He gave away a significant amount of value in taking
      guidant public and then spins the remainder off to shareholders.
      3. Lly's research team and prozac were in place before him.
      he can not be given credit for either.

      lly did very well as did the industry in the past three or four years
      and in my judgement would have done even better without pcs and
      with guidant. I truely do not understand what the financial
      community thinks is so great about this's
      have been fired for much less. Please explain???

    • Where have you been for the past two years???? Lilly sucked until Tobias got there..

    • Thats complete bullshit, smooth_sailor! Do you have any evidence for your assumptions?
      I think, the main problem is of less and less patience! People want to make money with shares in shorter times, want sales of new drugs rise to higher amounts in shorter times and so on. Maybe this is too philosophical, but this tendency wlll eventually lead to a new crash! Any comments?

    • I think the recent and continuing failure with this Company is completley with top management and this is where change needs to take place. They have been living on the Prosac gravy-train for so long they don't realize the rest of the market has completley passed them by. As long as we have this management group that cannot keep pace with the present day markets I can see no relief in site.

    • last week's downgrade from Smith B. still resonating with fund managers not wanting to hold on for a longer period of time than they're used to( i.e. a month ); shorting also playing a role praying on fears of uncertain Evista sales.

      Mind boggling. Especially in light of this AM's Centecor news and the apparent stellar prospects for their Reo Pro heart related drug. LLY, of course, being their marketing partner.

      Coincidentally, came back from a visit to my GP this AM and had queried him on Evista along with some other drugs. Of all the drugs I mentioned he was most enthused about Evista -- considered it more or less a no brainer; had no qualms prescribing it. In alcove to his office was a table laden with pharma literature. LLY had a decent array, very well done; of course I have no bias.


    • Insidescoop seems to have some interesting views on this stock and the 40% flash rate can't be good news for Evista.

      I have noticed the weakness in LLY and am interested in getting in at lower prices once a bottom sets in but would appreciate your view of where you see the replacement for Prosac If its not Evista than what do you think LLY is worth if Evista fails to hit the targets established for it by 02? It would appear that the market is anticipating an early failure or at least not the success predicted for it. So what do you think the stock is worth under those circumsatances?

      I'm asking because I got burned on Syntex and their failure to replace a hot drug that suported the company and see a similar situation on a larger scale here with Prosac. Is Zyprexa (?) likely to be larger than expected and serve that role? Your comments would be appreciated.

    • i bought lly last week when it dropped to 60.625. I honestly thought that was once again the bottom. I was certainly wrong
      this time and i feel anyone holding this stock could be a little nervous now. The stock has done nothing but slide for the past
      two weeks and that makes me very uncomfortable. It seems that each day it is not a matter of if it will go down just how much it
      will go down. I have made money on lly over the years but come on people something appears to be very wrong here. Hope things
      turn around for all of you who choose to remain but i am going to go buy stocks that choose to increase in value.

    • how come lly's getting hammered and everyone else (drugs) is going up?

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