Let the uprising begin!! First stop, the annual love fest, I mean, meeting, when Sir Sidney tells us about the "bold, strategic moves LLY will make," and how the "companies and employees will make us into the top pharma company (not, of course, based on any financial metrics--maybe based on altruism?) Of course, I expect the line, "Wall ST obviously doesn't know how to value us." Thats the same BS I heard when I was there in the early 90's before Tobias, AN OUTSIDER, made something happen. I sense internal implosion at Lilly, Us (Go it alone, Wall St doesn't like us, etc.) v. them (the big evil mergers).
I'm surprised we haven't seen something out of Indy. The farther LLY falls, the more acquisition-bait they become--but don't get your hopes up mgmt will drive--it will be one ugly hostile takeover if it happens.
I wish I could bail but, as a former higly overpaid manager, I'm stuck until I can stomach a REASONABLE capital loss (you can only deduce so much).
The best thing that can happen is for LLY to test 60 1/2 one more time this week (sardistic, I know) and go back up to around 68-70 next week instead of hoovering around 61+ like this. Did you people hear that BMY is trying to settle Taxol law suit out of court? If this happens, BMY might be free to merge/take over (?LLY) sooner than the expected March.
yep to bottomdweller's comment--5 yr study--they will probably start doing analyis at end of yr 2--could be good news if seperation at that time.
Evista is slowly on its way to a $1b but taking the 2 lane hwy v. the interstate.
One inherant problem is Evista, along with Tamoxifen, may be the first truly preventative drug. Managed care hates it but women and the media could make them look bad if Evista gets a nod for breast cancer. What concerns me are the MDs. MD's are, for the most part, plumbers (i.e. fixers). YOu're sick, you go to the doc and get the leak repaired. It's a different mentality (esp for men) to prescribe a drug long term that prevents a disease yet doesn't immediately solve a problem (like high cholestrol). Who's going to pay for this 15 yrs benefit? The pharmacoeconomics have better be solid or mgd care punts.
To help MD's, LLY is targeting not just family MD's but OB'/GYN who 1)are increaingly becoming more female dominated and 2)are more use to the prevention discussion.
There is an ongoing trial to compare Tamoxifen and Evista in Breast Ca prevention. The bad news is the trial will take another ?5years to complete.There won't be any news on that front for a long while (unless the study is stopped prematurely due to unexpected positive or negative finding).
Since you are a former employee, why is lly lying about the Humulin, and insisting that everyone can switch and no one has a problem on it? What has happened to this once fine company? A friend of mine called them today to find out why no one can find the pork insulin here in the states, that they insist we should be able to use, if we can't use the Humulin, and she said they were transferring her from one office to another, and it was almost like they were trying to come up with an answer. They told her they were still making it, here in the states, but they did not know where. WHAT!!!!!. Granted, Humulin works for some, but when you make a claim that everyone can use it and no one has a problem on it, you had better be ready to back it up, and they cannot back it up. The media is working on this story about the humulin, someone from the press called me last Friday. I will swear this on a Bible to you. LLY has dug themselves a deep hole, with this coverup. I have nothing against you people, I am just trying to warn you, LLY has been found out. I am not the only one contacting Senators, Congresspeople, the media, etc. There is a massive audience going to hear this story soon. I feel as sorry for you people as I do for the diabetics suffering who have been forced to use the Humulin, since they stopped producing the Iletin I. You put your faith and trust in this company by buying lly shares, just as we have for decades had faith in them and trusted their superior insulins. For years they were a superior company, but they have dug their own grave with this coverup.
fair question. you are right--not every drug works in all people. Usually, there's almost always an alternative or a new drug on the horizon.
The bottom line is (i think) your on pork insulin and can't tolerate genetically engineered insulin (Humulin is one, Novo also has one with AVE on the way with another) Have you tried these?. I'm assuming (don't remember) LLY is last remain pork insulin producer.
I remeber much discussion about closing down Iletin production but wasn't directly involved. Probably, in the end, the goal was to get people to Humulin b/c they were afraid to go or the MD was ignorant and wouldn't switch them and I'm sure the clinical people would make the claim everyone SHOULD be able to use. Safe to say some financial parameters also had something to do with it.
No doubt, with no other supply, this is a huge moral conundrum. Sorry, I'm a capitalist at heart and want to see my options increase not slide into the north atlantic with the Titanic. LLY has every right to stop production--they are not the govt. But there are issues, particularly PR as it relates to the moral dilemna, to manage. IF I MADE THIS DECISION, I WOULD BE READY TO HANDLE THE PR. I guess we'll find out soon if your story comes to life how prepared LLY is.
Also, if there's really a huge, animal insulin mkt (you've claimed 300k users), some mfgr should jump in, right? sounds like an opportunity???
Regardless, your story does make some sense now--I think most board participants have issues with your sensationalism on PRozac et al which are groundless. You stated the facts on Humulin clearly. But unfortunately for your crusade, I the market is emotionless is the long run--at worse, LLY gets a black eye. It will heal.