Mon, Dec 29, 2014, 12:52 AM EST - U.S. Markets open in 8 hrs 38 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

  • eightironfrom160 eightironfrom160 Jul 3, 2000 2:59 PM Flag

    analysts sepsis projection wrong

    taking #'s from the press release, analysts
    predicted Zovant to PEAK at $500M per year. I get much more
    than that:

    700,000 US cases per year x 25%
    treated with Zovant (this is v. conservative but I don't
    know how often or if all cases should get Zovant) =
    175K zovant treatments

    175K treatments x $2,500
    per treatment (MY GUESS--AGAIN DON'T KNOW, SEEMS
    REASONABLE WHEN DEATH RATE IS 30-50% WITHOUT TREATMENT) =
    $440m in US sales

    Throw in Europe and Rest of
    world and additional off-label use (again, for what I
    don't know but there's always some) plus growth in
    market (more cases treated, higher cases) and you may
    have a $1B drug in 5 yrs.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • $1B was the number floating around in the Star
      stories.

      IF it's truly a "one and only", then wouldn't you
      expect treatment in the 50% of cases where nothing else
      works and death is probably or likely?

      Between
      this, IC 351, weekly Prozac, and generic prozac
      manufacturing, I'd say the $2.3B Prozac "hole" is pretty well
      filled...which would account for the present full valuation of
      the stock. (I figured it would take until early next
      year to see 100.)

      • 1 Reply to thundermutt
      • the 50% rate on sepsis makes sense in a 'one and
        only' but I just don't know enough about sepsis--how
        are they treating it now? Rarely do you ever find a
        condition that has no treatment modality. Also, a certain %
        of MD's will be cautious--we have NO idea what the
        side effect profile of Zovant is--there's always
        tradeoffs.

        Back to the prozac 'hole', I'd throw in growth of
        existing products--should bring in 1-1.5B. I did see
        Viagra sales were ~$700M last year--I thought it was
        well over 1B? maybe that was US only--so some concern
        over IC 351 potential in the overall market.

        I
        don't see any cash in prozac mfgr--have they announced
        they will play in that game?? stuff is easy as dirt to
        make--you could make it in your bathtub. The price will
        plummet.

    • I hope this all pans out as announced. Will be a
      significant medical advance if all is true.

      Does
      anyone know the patent situation on this protein? Lilly
      continues to make breakthroughs, but as usual, the efficacy
      breakthroughs are a decade or two after the product discovery.
      I remember reading about APC back in the 80's. Any
      patent knowledge out there?

      Vinny

 
LLY
70.39+0.23(+0.33%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.