taking #'s from the press release, analysts predicted Zovant to PEAK at $500M per year. I get much more than that:
700,000 US cases per year x 25% treated with Zovant (this is v. conservative but I don't know how often or if all cases should get Zovant) = 175K zovant treatments
175K treatments x $2,500 per treatment (MY GUESS--AGAIN DON'T KNOW, SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN DEATH RATE IS 30-50% WITHOUT TREATMENT) = $440m in US sales
Throw in Europe and Rest of world and additional off-label use (again, for what I don't know but there's always some) plus growth in market (more cases treated, higher cases) and you may have a $1B drug in 5 yrs.
$1B was the number floating around in the Star stories.
IF it's truly a "one and only", then wouldn't you expect treatment in the 50% of cases where nothing else works and death is probably or likely?
Between this, IC 351, weekly Prozac, and generic prozac manufacturing, I'd say the $2.3B Prozac "hole" is pretty well filled...which would account for the present full valuation of the stock. (I figured it would take until early next year to see 100.)
the 50% rate on sepsis makes sense in a 'one and only' but I just don't know enough about sepsis--how are they treating it now? Rarely do you ever find a condition that has no treatment modality. Also, a certain % of MD's will be cautious--we have NO idea what the side effect profile of Zovant is--there's always tradeoffs.
Back to the prozac 'hole', I'd throw in growth of existing products--should bring in 1-1.5B. I did see Viagra sales were ~$700M last year--I thought it was well over 1B? maybe that was US only--so some concern over IC 351 potential in the overall market.
I don't see any cash in prozac mfgr--have they announced they will play in that game?? stuff is easy as dirt to make--you could make it in your bathtub. The price will plummet.
I hope this all pans out as announced. Will be a significant medical advance if all is true.
Does anyone know the patent situation on this protein? Lilly continues to make breakthroughs, but as usual, the efficacy breakthroughs are a decade or two after the product discovery. I remember reading about APC back in the 80's. Any patent knowledge out there?
One would assume that the use and manufacturing patents will cover this one for 10-15 years after approval. (Don't know if it will fall under the new, longer patent life, though.) The stories all mentioned that it was an "old" compound.