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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

  • eightironfrom160 eightironfrom160 Jul 3, 2000 2:59 PM Flag

    analysts sepsis projection wrong

    taking #'s from the press release, analysts
    predicted Zovant to PEAK at $500M per year. I get much more
    than that:

    700,000 US cases per year x 25%
    treated with Zovant (this is v. conservative but I don't
    know how often or if all cases should get Zovant) =
    175K zovant treatments

    175K treatments x $2,500
    per treatment (MY GUESS--AGAIN DON'T KNOW, SEEMS
    REASONABLE WHEN DEATH RATE IS 30-50% WITHOUT TREATMENT) =
    $440m in US sales

    Throw in Europe and Rest of
    world and additional off-label use (again, for what I
    don't know but there's always some) plus growth in
    market (more cases treated, higher cases) and you may
    have a $1B drug in 5 yrs.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • $1B was the number floating around in the Star
      stories.

      IF it's truly a "one and only", then wouldn't you
      expect treatment in the 50% of cases where nothing else
      works and death is probably or likely?

      Between
      this, IC 351, weekly Prozac, and generic prozac
      manufacturing, I'd say the $2.3B Prozac "hole" is pretty well
      filled...which would account for the present full valuation of
      the stock. (I figured it would take until early next
      year to see 100.)

      • 1 Reply to thundermutt
      • the 50% rate on sepsis makes sense in a 'one and
        only' but I just don't know enough about sepsis--how
        are they treating it now? Rarely do you ever find a
        condition that has no treatment modality. Also, a certain %
        of MD's will be cautious--we have NO idea what the
        side effect profile of Zovant is--there's always
        tradeoffs.

        Back to the prozac 'hole', I'd throw in growth of
        existing products--should bring in 1-1.5B. I did see
        Viagra sales were ~$700M last year--I thought it was
        well over 1B? maybe that was US only--so some concern
        over IC 351 potential in the overall market.

        I
        don't see any cash in prozac mfgr--have they announced
        they will play in that game?? stuff is easy as dirt to
        make--you could make it in your bathtub. The price will
        plummet.

    • I hope this all pans out as announced. Will be a
      significant medical advance if all is true.

      Does
      anyone know the patent situation on this protein? Lilly
      continues to make breakthroughs, but as usual, the efficacy
      breakthroughs are a decade or two after the product discovery.
      I remember reading about APC back in the 80's. Any
      patent knowledge out there?

      Vinny

 
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