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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

  • eightironfrom160 eightironfrom160 Feb 9, 2001 3:49 PM Flag

    zovant fun with numbers ?

    below was taken from press release

    "Trial data analysis showed a highly statistically significant reduction in the relative risk of mortality of 19.4 percent (p-value = 0.005) for those treated with Zovant, which was administered as a continuous infusion of 24 micrograms per kilogram per hour for 96 hours compared with those patients receiving placebo. The mortality rates were 24.7 percent among Zovant-treated patients versus 30.8 percent among patients treated with placebo. The response to Zovant was consistent across almost all patient subgroups in the clinical trial. Zovant increased the odds of survival by 38.1 percent."

    The 19.4% decrease in mortality is correct. Where the hell did they get the numbers in the last line? Isn't 'increasing odds of survival" and decreased mortality rate essentially the same thing??? 38 v. 19% is a huge difference!!!! Other than multiplying by 2, I can't make 38% out of any of these numbers.

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    • eight-

      They are different numbers. I'll try to explain the difference by using an example.

      Example: there are 100 patients in a study and 30 die on placebo and 24 die on a drug. The difference between drug and placebo is 6.

      Mortality has been reduced by 20% (6 is 20% of the 30 that died on placebo)

      Similarly, if you turn the equation the other way. Odds of survival have been increased by 25%. (6 is 25% of 24)

      These obviously aren't the numbers from the trial, but I hope it explains how those numbers are derived.

      • 1 Reply to wahoowarrior333
      • wahoo et al

        Pls read the press release. The numbers from the study ARE (approx) 24 die with Zovant, 30 on placebo (out of 100).

        I did the same equation you di--%'s back and forth (geez, you think people on the board are 5th graders??) By your OWN example and the study numbers, the BEST we get is a 25% increase in survival.

        LLY quoted 38% per my message and the press release study.

        Want to try again explaining the 19% decrease in mortality and 38% increase in survival???

        Perhaps someone who knows the Zovant study would like to shed some light here??

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