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Titan Machinery, Inc. Message Board

  • tongoapeman tongoapeman Nov 25, 2013 4:47 PM Flag

    I think these guys are in trouble, but the huge short interest scares me

    You've got corn prices falling dramatically and the threat of a loosening of ethanol mandates which could hurt even more. Weaker crop prices mean less farmer income means less equipment purchases. Remember when Titan was announcing an acquisition every few weeks or so? Notice how that has dried up to nothing? Next thing we'll hear is that they are closing dealerships to cut costs. But I am too chicken to go short or buy puts when nearly 39% of the float is already shorted.

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    • How can TITN do badly when others in that industry seem to be OK, especially DE?
      The profit margins are thin, but revenue continues to grow.
      Usually, the stock price is most strongly affected by growth.
      Often, the cost of growth undermines profits in the short run.
      I have Jan14 $17.50 calls. TITN down two bucks in three days--ouch!
      Seems a bit oversold. With the large short interest, Thursday after earnings will most likely be an up day.
      I will be very disappointed if TITN earnings do not meet or exceed expectation, to say the least.
      $16 is a bottom--IMHO. $16 in 2010, $16 in 2011. $16 in 2013.
      PE of 10, with strong revenue growth. TITN is undervalued, seems to me.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to chemsysus
      • How can TITN do badly when others in that industry seem to be OK, especially DE?

        Maybe DE and CAT just make better stuff and/or have market advantage. Lots of other possibilities too #$%$ board of directors, financials, etc).

        Other than that first sentence, you had a decent analysis, though I disagree about oversold if the earnings come in low tomorrow. Jan $17.5 seems like a reach to me. GTLA

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