I agree and I believe this could happen soon. This stock is down almost 50% in a time where most of its competitors were up and the entire market was up. Let's see if two things happen. like postponing or delaying of earnings and missing by a wide margin along with lowered guidance. That's 3 things but the first will most certainly be followed by the next two.
You are probably correct in regards to the debt service. But this stock is controlled to the point that they can crush shorts any time they want to.
It is not about business fundamentals in this case.
This is about CNH/Fiat Industrial/Fiat not letting TITN fail and having control over enough shares and enough resources to decide what happens. With only 330 million in market cap and 20million shares outstanding, this is not a big challenge for these people.
(Here's a hint; did a chain of CNH dealerships headquartered in Fargo North Dakota really decide to move into eastern Europe on their own? Does that even make sense?)
You might luck out, time your short right and make a killing. Or you might get held up over a couple thousand shares and lose everything you've got. This is not a risk I would be willing to take.