With various positions at 28, 22, 18, and 16 in CBR (mostly 28, unfortunately....) I'm distressed but hopeful... I really do think this is a solid company with great medium-long term potential.. I am a prior long-term employee. CBR treated me well, and paid me fairly (not exorbitantly, but within reason & with a high premium on revenue generation, but with ramifiactions for client dissatisfaction).
They seem to have the right approach - get solid employees with good long-term potential, but don't succomb to the "Give me 80K & 50,000 option" 22-year old strategy (whose options in most other companies, by the way, are TOTALLY worthless now).
Still, I'm curious what people think about the ASP venture (Agilera?) & other spin-off (DigiTerra), etc and what the 12-18 month outlook is.
Personally, I think any IN @ 16 7/8 - OUT @ 18/14 strategy will be blown away within 12 months, (although admitedly you have made more $$ than me in this stock! GFY! (that's good for you, not some other acronym :))
This sector is out of favor unless they are bringing in foreign help -check out Mastech this year.
Mark my words - this is the big year for consolidation in this industry - when 2nd quarter comes in bad for these companies and it will - the only thing left to do is merge to cut expenses. Margins will never get back up because the customers have gotten wise to the game and seen the principals ride off in their private jets -the party is over !
i.e. Agilera and DigiTerra. For one, there were to many groups associated with CIBER and it was difficult to create a unique identity within the company (EAS, ESG, BIT, CSG, CEO, etc.) Regardless of whether anybody realizes it or not, CIBER has essentially become a holding company in the consulting arena. The same scenario would be true if, for example, Deloitte and Touche did a carve-out of their five core competency businesses. Mark my words, there WILL be an increase in shareholder value - and the reason will be very obvious at a later date. Spin-offs and carve-outs are not considered an immediate value-add to shareholders anymore. However, if you do enough DD, you will see that the Agilera and DigiTerra business plans have actual merit, direction, strong management and most importantly - referable customers. Hold on to your CBR shares longs.
I agree about the consolidation but I'm not sure the party is over. The party is just not as big or wild as your typical college kegger.
The demand is starting to ramp up again and I think the best companies will prevail. CIBER has as good a chance as any but they will have to perform. I expect CIBER, Keane, CTG, etc. to see some consolidation with the Web darlings who need depth and scale. Companies like Razorfish, Proxicom, Viant, etc. Time will tell.
that long term investing pays off better than trading, at least for most people, including me. And I'm sure that one day I'll sell my CBR for a quick buck only to watch it keep going higher, and you will have your long term gain. However, in the current market, most of my long term positions are under water and I don't expect that to change for a while. So I am concentrating on a few stocks that I have had success trading, and I'm happy with my short term gains.