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Ciber, Inc. Message Board

  • jogfwejoi jogfwejoi May 10, 2000 10:43 PM Flag

    I want to believe...

    With various positions at 28, 22, 18, and 16 in
    CBR (mostly 28, unfortunately....) I'm distressed but
    hopeful... I really do think this is a solid company with
    great medium-long term potential.. I am a prior
    long-term employee. CBR treated me well, and paid me fairly
    (not exorbitantly, but within reason & with a high
    premium on revenue generation, but with ramifiactions for
    client dissatisfaction).

    They seem to have the
    right approach - get solid employees with good
    long-term potential, but don't succomb to the "Give me 80K
    & 50,000 option" 22-year old strategy (whose
    options in most other companies, by the way, are TOTALLY
    worthless now).

    Still, I'm curious what people think
    about the ASP venture (Agilera?) & other spin-off
    (DigiTerra), etc and what the 12-18 month outlook

    Personally, I think any IN @ 16 7/8 - OUT @ 18/14 strategy
    will be blown away within 12 months, (although
    admitedly you have made more $$ than me in this stock! GFY!
    (that's good for you, not some other acronym :))

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • This sector is out of favor unless they are
      bringing in foreign help -check out Mastech this

      Mark my words - this is the big year for consolidation
      in this industry - when 2nd quarter comes in bad for
      these companies and it will - the only thing left to do
      is merge to cut expenses. Margins will never get
      back up because the customers have gotten wise to the
      game and seen the principals ride off in their private
      jets -the party is over !

      • 2 Replies to fjgto
      • i.e. Agilera and DigiTerra. For one, there were
        to many groups associated with CIBER and it was
        difficult to create a unique identity within the company
        (EAS, ESG, BIT, CSG, CEO, etc.) Regardless of whether
        anybody realizes it or not, CIBER has essentially become
        a holding company in the consulting arena. The same
        scenario would be true if, for example, Deloitte and
        Touche did a carve-out of their five core competency
        businesses. Mark my words, there WILL be an increase in
        shareholder value - and the reason will be very obvious at a
        later date. Spin-offs and carve-outs are not considered
        an immediate value-add to shareholders anymore.
        However, if you do enough DD, you will see that the
        Agilera and DigiTerra business plans have actual merit,
        direction, strong management and most importantly -
        referable customers. Hold on to your CBR shares longs.

      • I agree about the consolidation but I'm not sure
        the party is over. The party is just not as big or
        wild as your typical college kegger.

        The demand
        is starting to ramp up again and I think the best
        companies will prevail. CIBER has as good a chance as any
        but they will have to perform. I expect CIBER, Keane,
        CTG, etc. to see some consolidation with the Web
        darlings who need depth and scale. Companies like
        Razorfish, Proxicom, Viant, etc. Time will tell.

    • that long term investing pays off better than
      trading, at least for most people, including me. And I'm
      sure that one day I'll sell my CBR for a quick buck
      only to watch it keep going higher, and you will have
      your long term gain. However, in the current market,
      most of my long term positions are under water and I
      don't expect that to change for a while. So I am
      concentrating on a few stocks that I have had success trading,
      and I'm happy with my short term gains.


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