If you look at what I am saying, and remove any displeasure for the way I present myself, you'll see that what you've experienced with stocks like CBR is the criminal intent of a Wall Street Oligarchy bent on defrauding small investors and stealing their savings. Hell, they even steal from each other! What they say is an advertising ploy and a hustle - what they actually do is prey on the weak and defenseless (just look at tech companies right now) and play an endless game of pump and dump.
Bull markets are all pump, bears are all dump. But they only let you play one way, while they play BOTH ways. And when they are done destroying this market, they will need to pump it up again or there won't be any game anymore, now will there?
The whole goal of investing in stocks is not about investing at all: it's about playing the game, and playing it to win. To buy when stocks go up, and sell when they go down, and don't stick around long enough for someone to change their mind. I rarely even hold stocks overnight anymore, because you never know what you've got when you wake up in the morning. Could be cut in half like FFIV and about 500 other tech stocks in the last 4 months. Shorting for the last 4 months has been almost EFFORTLESS. There's only about 4 or 5 up days a month, and they're sudden explosive spikes that make shorting even easier, because the stocks stick their necks out so far as people chase them.
You may say that shorts have no respect, but in fact we do. We respect pythons in the jungle and tread carefully when near them. But when there's only 5 lions and 600 defenseless sheep, we eat, and eat big. And when the bulls are running in Pamplona we run with them too, we don't 'short' them, we run with them. The true successful trader is somewhat of a jackal, a survival jack-of-all-trades, so to speak.
If a person is willing to change their minds, and trade small, and make profitability instead of one-shot homeruns their priority, you can do very very well in this kind of market. Freed from the idea of being right or wrong or holding to wishes or beliefs, you can simply respond to what's in front of you. And what's in front of you here is a tech wreck with no end in sight, YET. If you take out all 1999-Y2K and draw a line through all the NAZ tops prior to 1999-Y2K , you get 2700 at the top, and 1800 at the bottom, and that still preserves the bull trend from 1990. Will it bottom there? I don't know, but the symmetry on the chart seems to indicate it could eventually hit near the 1998 lows, and that's a long way down from here.
I sold CBR at 39 almost 2 years ago, and sweated doing it because I thought that I was throwing away a long time value holding. However, the only value in investing is your money - nothing else. Once a year or so I stop in on CBR to see how much money people have lost with it that year, and encourage people to get out. If INTC can't make money, why should CBR?
Thanks for your discertation on Ciber and tech stocks. This industry group suffers from a reactive versus proactive management philosphy, in short they would not know an opportunity if it was running over them in a bulldozer. Like you I got out of Ciber but at a loss to offset soem gains elsewhere. I wish I could forecast some goodness for this sector but maybe 2001 numbers will look OK when compared to 2000. I have no advice to offer however my dollars in the bond market that everyone was laughing at in March look pretty good now. I still say the only hope here in M&A.