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Ciber, Inc. Message Board

  • co_bulldog co_bulldog Dec 29, 2000 7:23 PM Flag

    Can someone explain.....

    No so long ago, CBR stock traded at nearly $30
    per share. Today it closed at less than $5 per share.
    I can see only two possible explanations for this.
    Either 1) the stock was extremely overvalued at $30 per
    share, or 2) it is extremely undervalued at $5 per share
    today. I find it hard to believe that this company
    actually lost 85% of its value in one year. Anyone out
    there care to venture a factual explanation for this
    monumental plunge in stock value?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Suddenly trapped in 2 separate death spirals:
      most overvalued tech market in history, and now a
      priced-in slowdown in corporate tech spending worldwide.


      It's been all downhill for a solid year except for a
      brief moment of hope last year when I finally got out
      of this POS and sold for good. And still people are
      looking at the value inherent in CBR, the products, the
      company, etc. Wake up guys. It's not about the company -
      it's about the tape. Investors have listened to the
      brokerages' BS about "buy and hold" for so long that they've
      forgotten their senses. If there's a fire in your house you
      GET OUT. You don't look at the long term benefits of
      it. Long term tech investors in these emerging
      technologies have been taken out back and SHOT DEAD. (If you
      just lost 50% this year you were lucky.) For every one
      that's hit the jackpot (and those jackpots are dwindling
      daily), there's been 10 that have ended up like
      CBR.

      Also, I don't see any institutional people trading from
      a buy and hold frame of reference. How they feel
      about the company is one thing, what the tape tells
      them about buying it is another. And they have been
      SELLING en masse, into ANY kind of rally: the same guys
      that gave you the outrageous buy recommendations
      earlier this year, are cleaning investors clocks now
      because their firms are all NET SHORT. That's why they
      keep coming out with these downgrades when the techs
      are down - to drive them down further and thus make
      more money off the lemmings they've trained for 7
      years to go long on any dip. It's like shooting fish in
      a barrel. Easy pickins. Today was a perfect
      example: all the techs that nearly doubled in the last 4
      days on people hoping a new tech trend has begun, got
      clobbered for 15-20%. There haven't been 5 consecutive up
      days on the NAZ in 4 months that I can remember. If
      there are 3 or 4 up days, all the sellers come in to
      take the profits they've got, and short the same
      stocks they had bought, just when it looks like its safe
      for you to go back in the water and buy them again.
      Long termers wait for a trend change - as soon as the
      trend change seems established - the institutional
      shorts clobber it for all its worth, break it, and ride
      it to new lows.

      It is estimated that 2.5
      Trillion dollars has been lost in the last 9 months by
      U.S. buy and holders, and fools buying the latest dip.
      How many failed rallies have there been: 50? 60? and
      yet people keep hoping "This has GOT to be the
      bottom."

      You know when it will be the bottom? When there is NO
      ONE LEFT STANDING TO BUY. When no one will be willing
      to buy anything tech. When there will be no more
      7-10% one-day rallies, and people finally give up. Then
      all the big houses will entice people back into the
      game a little bit at a time, and quietly begin
      accumulating new money again. It's precisely what's called
      "sector rotation". Just look at the energy, medical/HMO
      and drug stocks this year - all at 52 week highs.
      What a crock: corporate people in those companies make
      money by stealing from Americans and overcharging them.
      And yet they are the Wall Street darlings this year.
      But just watch what happens to them NEXT year.

      • 1 Reply to johnmg47
      • If you look at what I am saying, and remove any
        displeasure for the way I present myself, you'll see that
        what you've experienced with stocks like CBR is the
        criminal intent of a Wall Street Oligarchy bent on
        defrauding small investors and stealing their savings. Hell,
        they even steal from each other! What they say is an
        advertising ploy and a hustle - what they actually do is prey
        on the weak and defenseless (just look at tech
        companies right now) and play an endless game of pump and
        dump.

        Bull markets are all pump, bears are all dump. But
        they only let you play one way, while they play BOTH
        ways. And when they are done destroying this market,
        they will need to pump it up again or there won't be
        any game anymore, now will there?

        The whole
        goal of investing in stocks is not about investing at
        all: it's about playing the game, and playing it to
        win. To buy when stocks go up, and sell when they go
        down, and don't stick around long enough for someone to
        change their mind. I rarely even hold stocks overnight
        anymore, because you never know what you've got when you
        wake up in the morning. Could be cut in half like FFIV
        and about 500 other tech stocks in the last 4 months.
        Shorting for the last 4 months has been almost EFFORTLESS.
        There's only about 4 or 5 up days a month, and they're
        sudden explosive spikes that make shorting even easier,
        because the stocks stick their necks out so far as people
        chase them.

        You may say that shorts have no
        respect, but in fact we do. We respect pythons in the
        jungle and tread carefully when near them. But when
        there's only 5 lions and 600 defenseless sheep, we eat,
        and eat big. And when the bulls are running in
        Pamplona we run with them too, we don't 'short' them, we
        run with them. The true successful trader is somewhat
        of a jackal, a survival jack-of-all-trades, so to
        speak.

        If a person is willing to change their minds, and
        trade small, and make profitability instead of one-shot
        homeruns their priority, you can do very very well in this
        kind of market. Freed from the idea of being right or
        wrong or holding to wishes or beliefs, you can simply
        respond to what's in front of you. And what's in front of
        you here is a tech wreck with no end in sight, YET.
        If you take out all 1999-Y2K and draw a line through
        all the NAZ tops prior to 1999-Y2K , you get 2700 at
        the top, and 1800 at the bottom, and that still
        preserves the bull trend from 1990. Will it bottom there? I
        don't know, but the symmetry on the chart seems to
        indicate it could eventually hit near the 1998 lows, and
        that's a long way down from here.

        I sold CBR at
        39 almost 2 years ago, and sweated doing it because
        I thought that I was throwing away a long time
        value holding. However, the only value in investing is
        your money - nothing else. Once a year or so I stop in
        on CBR to see how much money people have lost with
        it that year, and encourage people to get out. If
        INTC can't make money, why should CBR?

 
CBR
3.20+0.10(+3.23%)Dec 17 4:01 PMEST

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