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Delcath Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • drwimax drwimax Mar 11, 2013 10:53 PM Flag

    Shorts Coming Out of the Woodwork

    This is a good sign because it means they are getting scared that share price is rising quickly. Shorts will have no choice but to cover at a higher price. Longs know that Delcath had excellent phase II and III trials with the CHEMOSAT drug delivery system and now they are finally ready to get FDA approval.

    As most of you know, the FDA allowed Celsion to fast-track and skip phase II trials and go directly into phase III trials with their Liposome Microwave Heat Therapy to treat Liver Cancer but trial failed miserably as they were unable to meet their end points. Celsion's stock price went from $8.02/share at market close on January 30, 2013 to $1.50/share on January 31, 2013 once phase III trial results were announced to shareholders. It eventually dropped below $1.00/share but did make a small dead cat bounce to $1.15.

    Now that China knows that Celsion's Liposome therapy was proven to be a total failure they will soon partner with Delcath to treat their Liver Cancer patients with hopes of extending their lives.

    Hold on tightly to your shares. Let's make the shorts pay a much higher price when they do decide to cover.

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    • I was in CLSN but got wiped out by a bear raid right before the results (stop order). Turns out it was a huge blessing. Anyway, CLSN had a deal with big pharm in China pre-announcement. When the results failed, the Chinese company announced it was severing ties with CLSN so China is wide open. I always said the DCTH fast-track was a bad idea and they shouldn't have even asked for it. Historically, fast-tracked bios fail 3X more than standard review.

      The shorts are going to get killed at least until May 2 ODAC panel vote because there's very little possibility of any news coming out before then. Just a quiet run up. I would guess a month from now, the stock will be $3 and the shorts will be in full panic mode.

      An analyst on CNBC mentioned after the CLSN failure that DCTH might be ripe for a US big pharm contingency deal (ala WMGI and BMTI's deal) to try to get "1st dibbs" on DCTH before US approval. For example, you issue new stock and CVRs(contingent value rights) for your DCTH shares. Shareholders of BMTI got an equal number of CVRs in WMGI whereby upon FDA approval, you get $3.50/share in cash. Then, once sales reach X, you get another $1.50/share cash, and again when you hit another X in sales it pays $1.50 more. So those shareholders got close to equal money for their existing stock but have a potential $6.50/share cash payout coming. Pays the shareholders a ton but also protects the purchasing company in case of a miss.

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