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Delcath Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 17, 2013 2:13 PM Flag

    Chart Comment

    I do not like the chart action seen in DCTH. The 1.62 level of support broke and the 1.41 level of support is breaking and if it closes below 1.41 today (looking likely), the next support isn't until 1.16-1.20.

    The break of the 1.41 level is particularly negative inasmuch as the chart support there goes all the way back to May of last year and should "NOT" have broken, especially since the FDA committee meeting is just 2 weeks away.

    I am also long AVEO which is in the same boat as DCTH as they too have a cancer drug/approach that is also facing the FDA committee meeting on MAY 2nd and AVEO is not seeing the same kind of weakness that DCTH is seeing. This either means that DCTH may not be getting the support/recommendation at the FDA meeting or that the recent money problems (which AVEO also has) are more than is being let on.

    Either way, I do not like the action and even more so when compared with another company in exactly the same boat. Not good!

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    • thanks for the chart reading would like to see your take on todays action, someone posted higher revs for EU but its unconfirmed, also dcth very close to its catalysts, lets see if it holds.

    • I don't know if any of you read that PDUFA approval meeting has been pushed back 3 months to September 13th but that piece of news likely means additional need of funding for another 5 months (more dlution?)

      As I stated last week, I did not like the chart action seen this past week and now it's probable the reason is the additional 3 months before Fed Approval meeting.

      Here is my latest chart comment that will come out in the newsletter I publish every Sunday:

      DCTH broke below the intra-week support at 1.40 as the stock received news that the date for FDA approval consideration was pushed back 3 months to September 13th. The stock had begun to rally as the original date for the adcom meeting on May 2nd neared but now that things have been pushed 3 months further the sellers once again gained control as the company will likely have to generate additional funding with further dilution to cover the extra time that will be needed until possible approval. The stock was able to hold on barely to the weekly close support at 1.41 with a close on Friday at 1.40 but the probabilities seem to favor further downside as there seems to be no immediate reason for the bulls to buy. The stock did close in the lower half of the week’s trading range suggesting that further selling will be seen this coming week. A break below Wednesday’s low at 1.31 will likely cause the stock to drop down to the 1.16-1.20 level of support that is important because a break of that support suggests the stock would test the 4-year low at 1.01. A rally and close above 1.67 would likely stop the sell pressure but the probabilities are low at this time that the stock will rally up and above that point.

    • Chart sure does not look good. The only "good" thing I see is several indicators are near oversold territory
      Last time chart look so bad was mid Nov (2012), it then jumped from $1.1 to $1.6

    • whats your thoughts on todays action luckyone

    • The stock did rally to close at the 1.40 level which does leave the door open for upside tomorrow. By the same token, it did break the 1.40 level intra-day/intra-week and that is a negative.

      To answer some of the comments, chart action close to an important fundamental report is NOT useless. It has been my experience over 37 years of trading that there are always some people that KNOW what is going to happen and the action before a report often shows how the report is going to come out.

      If anything, this stock should have been trading higher, not lower, as it is anticipated the report will be positive for DCTH. As such, speculators should have been buying this stock, not selling it.

      Nonetheless, pre-report action is not a guarantee that news has been leaked so it is still somewhat of a guess rather than an informed chart reading.

      I stick to my original thought that I "do not like the chart action" as it has more chances of it being indicative than non-indicative. Trading any stocks you need to go with the probabilities.

      Mind you though, that I own 6000 shares of DCTH so it is not like I am bearish or want to say something negative. I just know that being a realist (not a dreamer) is the only way to trade the market.

      • 1 Reply to luckyone581
      • I highly doubt the report has been leaked since it may not have been written yet. Unless whoever writes the report has informer someone that he/she will be negative, the current trade action is not very indicative of how the report might look like.

        For the life of my me, I cannot understand why FDA would be super critical of the device/drug combo given the ultra narrow indication and the dire conditions of the target patients, as well as the lack of effective standard of care.

        If there is a metric of risk/benefit trade off, how about a comparison with breast implants. Why is that approved while so much doubt about Chemosat?

    • Technicals are usually a good gauge of what is happening or about to happen. Yet, as Jefferson pointed out, a bio this close to a catalyst, tends to throw charting out the window.

      What has changed? The company is trimming. Ok....why? Does that info change the outcome of the may meeting? To me that info is not fully understood which brings on the emotion of FEAR.

      Buy when all are fearfull and sell when all are buying....time to buy....roll the dice....after all...who really knows what is going on? We are all just gambling at this point but with a bit of knowledge but never enough. I asked about this procedure during my last appointment at Moffit and I was told that what they are doing is "impressive".

      I'm staying put....20 cents here or there won;t make much difference if the May outcome is positive.


    • chart reading on small bios with near term catalyst is like throwing darts blind folded. I think charting is an excellent tool but with dcth looking at adcom notes released on 04/30 and the adcom on 05/02 anything is possible up down spin around who knows. today was off the hook crazy glad i missed it other than on twitter

    • nice chart reading, looks like DCTH has a chance to close at or above the $1.41 level of support, if so its the green light for blast off, anyone buying the dump will make some nice cash.

    • nice chart reading lets see how dcth closes its made a roaring comeback when many have given up 1.41 level is not out of the question, hoping a win for the longs.

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